China's Ace In The Hole

What exactly is China doing with Kim Jong-nam?  That's the question asked in an interesting report from the UK's Telegraph newspaper.  It seems that the eldest son of former Dear Leader Kim Jong-il is being carefully watched by Chinese authorities.  Kim Jong-nam has lived in exile in China, splitting his time between Beijing and the former Portuguese colony of Macau, since publicly embarrassing the Kim regime after being caught trying to sneak into Japan on a fake passport, reportedly to go to Disneyland Tokyo.

But since his father's death and his youngest brother's elevation to supreme leader status, China has taken a very protective stance towards Kim Jong-nam, according to Japanese jouranlist Yoji Gomi, who has written a book about the exiled Kim, a man he calls a friend.  Kim Jong-nam has been reported as saying that his youngest brother Kim Jong-un is nothing more than a figurehead who is unready for the leadership position he has been thrust into.  Kim Jong-nam was also critical of the lavish lifestyle of the Kims and of their “military first” policy – where members of the military get dibs on North Korea's scarce resources, rather than the Communist Party's supposed policy of “people first”.  As for the Chinese monitoring, Gomi suggests that Kim Jong-nam could be a “political card” for China to play if the Kim regime falls apart.

This is an interesting theory for a few reasons.  According to Korean tradition, power should have gone to the eldest son, Kim Jong-nam; so skipping him in favor of the youngest son is in many ways a jarring move.  Then there's the fact many North Koreans didn't even know of the existence of Kim Jong-un until last year, when he was suddenly introduced as the designated successor.  By contrast, Kim Jong-il spent almost two decades by the side of his father, the founder of the North Korean state, Kim Sung-il, a move that established a clear line of succession.  It is unknown how much support then Kim Jong-un actually has among the military or the ruling cadres of the Korean Worker's Party (a.k.a. the Communists), so the idea that he could be ousted as the result of an internal power struggle isn't that far-fetched.

If North Korea were to fall apart, once the period of immediate chaos subsided, it could lead to a reunification of the two Koreas.  This is something China has always been wary about, and a major reason why they have but up with the craziness of the Kim regime for all of these years – China doesn't want to have Korea unified under the South, which would put an economically-strong, Western-looking country flush up against their border.  So, with this in mind, protecting Kim Jong-nam makes a certain amount of sense as a “political card” to use Gomi’s term.  If North Korea were to fall apart, China could offer Kim Jong-nam up as a “rightful” successor based on his first son credentials and his statements in support of the North Korean people against the excesses of the Kim regime and over-reliance on the North Korean military.  He could be put forward as someone who could “restore” the idea of the People's Republic of North Korea championed by the still-revered Kim Sung-il, and could thus keep South Korea from extending their influence up to the Chinese border.

America's Next Top Villain

Any way you slice it, this has been a bad year for those George W. Bush would have called “evildoers”. A Libyan mob executed Moammar Gadhafi after a US/NATO-led air campaign allowed rebel forces to drive him from power; Anwar al-Awlaki, al-Qaeda's heir apparent, was killed in a US drone strike in Yemen; and Public Enemy #1, Osama bin Laden was dispatched by the US Navy's SEAL Team Six in May. Of course it seems these days that the United States isn't happy unless we have some uber-villain to rail against, so as a service to you, our reading public, AWV will handicap the race to be America's Next Top Villain. Now let's meet the contenders:

Kim Jong-il, North Korea; Odds: 6-1
Megalomaniacal bad guy Kim Jong-il already seems like he stepped out of a James Bond flick, which is fitting since the Dear Leader is known to be a huge movie buff. On the surface, Kim has all the prerequisites for supervillainy: a highly militarized state, a thriving cult of personality, a penchant for making grandiose threats; but Kim is also near 70 and reportedly in poor health – and no one wants a supervillain who just up and dies on you. Plus North Korea is currently on one of its swings towards engagement with the world, Kim himself was recently in Russia trying to drum up trade between the two nations and negotiating a possible natural gas pipeline route. And then there's the nuclear weapons issue, Kim has shown that nothing keeps the United States out of your well-coifed hair like having a nuclear arsenal (a lesson Gadhafi failed to grasp). But North Korea is known for wild swings in foreign affairs. Kim is also attempting to groom his youngest son, Kim Jong-un for leadership, and nothing screams legitimate leader like drumming up a little military conflict with your neighbors, so Kim the Elder will retain his spot on the possible Top Villain list.

Bashar al-Assad, Syria; Odds: 5-1
Given the Libyan blueprint, casting al-Assad of Syria as the Next Top Villain makes a lot of sense. Just like Gadhafi in Libya, al-Assad has overseen a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters within his country, and, just like Libya, the opposition has used social media to implore the international community to come to their aid. So far though these calls have fallen on deaf ears; there has been no outcry for a Syrian no-fly zone or to provide aid to their rebel movement. Why is a good question: it could be because Syria has close ties to Iran (as well as some ties to Russia), or because they lack Libya's vast oil reserves, or because al-Assad just doesn't have the track record for international mischief of a Moammar Gadhafi. Heady with the success from the Libyan mission, it is possible the international community may rally 'round the “Free Syria” idea, though not terribly likely so al-Assad stays on the list at 5-1.


Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran; Odds: 5-3
On paper, Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems like a shoe-in for the Next Top Villain post. Hawks in Israel and the US have been clamoring for military action against him for years: Israel fearing an Iranian nuclear bomb, the US angry over growing Iranian influence in Iraq, but the thought of the US engaging in another regional war in the MENA/Islamic world has thrown some cold water on the military action idea (and that was before Libya), as has Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program (see North Korea). Some experts believe that Ahmadinejad may be losing his grip on power in Iran anyway, the comically-bad plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US is taken by some as sign of a split within the Iranian leadership. Ultimately power in Iran is known to be in the hands of Ayatollah Khamenei, which works against Ahmadinejad since a rule of thumb is that the Top Villain actually has to be the guy in charge. Still, given his record as an anti-West, anti-Israel irritant and the desire in some quarters for military action against Iran, Ahmadinejad has to remain the odds-on favorite for the Next Top Villain spot.


Joseph Kony, Lord's Resistance Army; Odds: 50-1
As the leader of a brutal, nihilistic cult, Joseph Kony seems tailor-made for the role of Top Villain. His Lord's Resistance Army -which earned its reputation for brutality by maiming innocent civilians and raiding isolated villages, killing all the adults while enslaving all of the children - is an easy group to despise (unless, of course, you're Rush Limbaugh). But the LRA has never shown itself to be a threat anywhere but in the hinterlands of Central Africa, and Kony himself has shown a remarkable ability to blend into the African jungle and avoid capture for two long decades now. President Obama recently showed his willingness to take on the LRA by dispatching 100 US Special Forces troops to aid Uganda in Kony's capture. But a Top Villain has to at least seem to pose a direct threat to the United States and also has to be someone that we can be reasonably sure that we can eventually take out. No president wants another decade-long game of hide-and-seek like we had with bin Laden; two factors that make Kony a real longshot for next Top Villain.

Vladimir Putin, Russia; Odds: 8-1
We'll go retro for our last pick. Since declaring that he would once again run for president, Vladimir Putin is being cast as a sort of Soviet-era Leader for Life for the new millennium. Republican presidential candidates are using Putin's announcement as a chance to blast the Obama administration for its “failed reset” of relations with Russia. Add to that Putin's own budding cult of personality (complete with bikini-clad female supporters and a comic casting him as a superhero) and his penchant for photo-op stunts like swimming in Siberian rivers or finding planted Grecian urns while diving in the Aegean Sea, and you have the theatrical makings of a true Top Villain. While a direct military conflict between the US and Russia is unthinkable, the two sides have shown that they can keep a Cold War humming along for decades, and a non-war “war” could be just the thing for American military forces depleted by a decade of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and under growing budget constraints. The reality of the situation though is that the US and Russia need each other more as allies than as adversaries, so a return to the Cold War now is unlikely. Odds of Putin becoming next Top Villain depend on whether Obama (10-1) or the Republicans (6-1) win the 2012 election; we'll split the difference and put Vlad in at 8-1.

Of course there are always the dark horse candidates: Hugo Chavez is famous for his anti-American tirades; Republicans trying to appeal to Cuban-American voters in 2012 could always push the Castro brothers to the top of America's hit list; Afghanistan's erratic Hamid Karzai could always go rogue on us, so the race for America's Next Top Villain remains open. We'll check back in a few months and see where things stand.

Kim's Excellent Siberian Adventure

Though largely overshadowed by events elsewhere in the world, North Korea's reclusive leader, Kim Jong-il has spent the past few days meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and touring sites in Russia's Far East and Siberia regions. The trip marks the first time in almost a decade that the Dear Leader has paid a visit to his former Cold War ally.

The reason for the trip, of course, is business and to boost ties between the two nations. Russia got the ball rolling by pledging a gift of 50,000 tons of wheat to perpetually-hungry North Korea. Russia's real goal though is to get North Korea to give permission for the construction of a natural gas pipeline across their territory so that Russia can ship its gas directly to South Korea. Traditionally, most of Russia's natural gas has gone west, though pipelines, to markets in Europe. But Russia in recent years has been trying to diversify their gas clientele; they are actively working on liquid natural gas (or LNG) export facilities on the Pacific coast and north central Russia that would allow them to ship gas via LNG tanker to any part of the globe. A pipeline to South Korea would also give Russia another lucrative outlet for their gas, with the pipeline likely ensuring a long-term agreement between the two countries. Of course, this will also subject the Russia-South Korea gas relationship to the whims of the always mercurial Mr. Kim, a situation that seems all too similar, from a Russian perspective that is, to their relationship with Ukraine, which is currently the major transit point for their European gas shipments. Friction between Russia and Ukraine over payments for that gas has resulted in several shutdowns of the pipeline network in the past few years, causing fuel shortages across Europe.

But Russia seems willing to risk it with North Korea. One reason for the Russian position could be the unfolding events in Libya. Russian companies, like the quasi-national energy conglomerate Gazprom, currently have large contracts with the Gadhafi regime to develop Libya's oil and gas reserves. With Gadhafi seemingly on his way out, there is fear in Russia that a new rebel-backed government will be pro-NATO and by extension, anti-Russian, meaning Gazprom and other Russian firms could find themselves frozen out of the new Libya (early word from the would-be rebel government though is that they will honor all existing oil and gas contracts). From the other side, there are signs that Kim Jong-il may be looking to once again play nice with the international community. During his visit, word was leaked that North Korea may be willing to declare a moratorium in their pursuit of nuclear weapons, a key precondition set by the international community for any talks with North Korea.

Its also been interesting to see the Dear Leader in the flesh in Russia. For the past couple of years, rumors have circulated about Kim Jong-il's health, with most centering on the belief that he suffered a major stroke. Getting news about Kim out of North Korea is always a tricky matter since the state-controlled media has a penchant for running old footage of Kim as current events coverage. In the few verifiable current pictures of him, Kim looked thin and pretty bad shape. Kim's Siberia trip seems to be agreeing with him though. While he does look markedly older (Kim is somewhere near 70 years old), he looks more like his pudgy, strangely-content self than he has in other recent images.

Somali Pirate Double Shot

This was perhaps the best week ever for the pirates of Somalia as they seized not one but two loaded oil tankers in the Indian Ocean. On Tuesday a pirate crew captured the Savina Caylyn, an Italian-owned tanker heading from Sudan to Malaysia, 800 miles off the coast of Somalia; on Wednesday another crew took control of the Greek-owned Irene SL, which was carrying two million barrels of crude oil from Kuwait to the United States. No casualties were reported in either incident and both tankers are now assumed to be headed to the Somali coast where they will be held for ransom. Somali pirates have captured a supertanker once before, the Saudi-owned Sirius Star, which was eventually ransomed for $3 million.

Pirates have been more active in recent weeks, following a pattern established over the past few years that sees an uptick in pirate activity after the start of the new year and the end of the monsoon season in the Indian Ocean region. The threat of pirate attacks has been a risk that shipping companies traveling in the Indian Ocean have had to deal with for the past several years, but the seizure of two oil tankers on consecutive days could signal an escalation of the problem according to the firm that owns the Irene SL. “The hijacking by pirates of 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude oil destined for the U.S. in a large Greek tanker in the middle of the main sea lanes coming from the Middle East Gulf marks a significant shift in the impact of the piracy crisis in the Indian Ocean," said Joe Angelo, the managing director of INTERTANKO, owners of the Irene SL, in an interview with Reuters. While a multinational flotilla of naval vessels is engaged in anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia, there is simply too much open ocean (several million square miles depending on how you count the pirates' range) to effectively cover, most of the flotilla's efforts have been in protecting the Gulf of Aden along Somalia's north coast, which is the gateway to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Navies have also been extremely reluctant to engage in rescue operations once a ship is captured for fear of harming the captured ship's crew; one notable exception was last month when South Korean marines successfully freed the freighter Samho Jewelry, which had been held by pirates for several days.

But for the most part, companies have seen the possibility of paying a ransom for the release of their ship as the cost of doing business in the region. According to the BBC, Somali pirates are currently holding 29 ships of various sizes with an estimated total of 680 crew members among them. Whether the back-to-back tanker seizures changes the equation along the pirate coast remains to be seen.

Men With Hats

With all the serious news coming out of Egypt, a little comic relief is in order, and what better place to find it than North Korea, a country whose ruling regime I contended a few months ago has descended from mere evilness to levels of cartoonish super-villany. Case in point: Korea watchers are suggesting that North Korea's current overlord Dear Leader Kim Jong-il is sending a clear message that his No. #3 son Kim Jong-un has become his anointed successor based on their choice of hats.

It seems that a photo was recently taken with Kim the Younger wearing the exact same floppy fur hat as worn by his father Kim Jong-il, a hat that has become as much of a Dear Leader fashion trademark as his Members Only-style jumpsuits. Of course getting news out of North Korea is such an near impossibility that the mere fact the two are wearing the same hat is indication, observers say, of the desire for continuity in the Kim ruling dynasty... And just to add an extra layer of weirdness, Time magazine reports that a knock-off version of the Kim fur hat is quite popular among North Korea's elites, who apparently are hoping to catch a little of that Kim mystique.

AWV Award Time!

With 2010 now behind us, it's time for our annual look back at the year that was and at all the strangeness this world has to offer. So, without further adieu, it's time for the A World View Awards, and as always, any sarcasm contained within is most surely intentional.

The Maxwell Smart Award – Anna Chapman
It's only fitting that an award named for a spy who continually screwed up, yet somehow always managed to find success goes to the redheaded femme fatale Anna Chapman. Apparently gone are the days when failing in your mission as a spy meant a dank prison cell followed by a bullet; after being caught in a ham-handed FBI sting (or betrayed by a rogue FSB colonel) and repatriated to Russia, Chapman has found nothing but success: taking a job as a spokeswoman for a Russian bank, singing songs with Prime Minister Putin, being named to the board of a pro-Kremlin youth group, having ballads written in her honor and even getting her own iPhone app. There's speculation that next year Chapman may try to represent her native Volgograd region in the Russian Duma, not bad for someone who apparently failed badly in her espionage mission. We should note, since the other ten alleged spies swept up with Chapman have all sunk into lives of relative obscurity, being hot helps:


Golden Lights of Democracy Award – Yahya Jammeh, The Gambia and Laurent Gbagbo, Cote d'Ivoire
A split award to two men doing everything they can to undermine the cause of democracy in Africa this past year. First is President Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia, even with the media firmly under his control and elections fully rigged, Jammeh decided this whole process of pretending to run for president was just a big ol' waste of time, his solution: attempt to have himself named King of The Gambia, an idea dutifully pushed by compliant political lackeys. But not to be out done is President Laurent Gbagbo of Cote d'Ivoire, who came up with a great way to respond to losing a presidential election: just don't stop being president! After his loss was certified, Gbagbo, who called the free and fair election a “coup”, had himself sworn into office again and for the past month has insisted he's still the president. Unfortunately he is backed by a vast security force augmented by members of the Ivorian military and allegedly mercenaries from neighboring Liberia as well who are brutally attacking supporters of the legitimate president, Alassane Ouattara; the whole situation is threatening to descend into civil war, which doesn't seem to bother “president” Gbagbo in the least.

Bad Science Idea of the Year Award – Geoengineering
2010 saw some ardent global warming skeptics come around to the idea that greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) are actually having an effect on the world's climate. Unfortunately rather than working to limit the amount of GHG pumped into the atmosphere – by taking steps like shutting coal-fired power plants, moving away from a car-centric culture and generally changing the way the developed world works – some scientists are proposing an idea called “geoengineering”, or essentially hacking the global climate. Geoengineering would involve pumping huge amounts of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere to reflect a portion of the sunlight hitting the Earth back into space. With less sunlight hitting the Earth's surface, global temperatures would drop, or more correctly, would drop in a manner offsetting the rise in global temperatures caused by the GHGs, thus keeping things about where they are.
Two small problems: first is that once started, the sulfur dioxide pumping would have to continue, permanently; otherwise global temperatures could suddenly spike upward by several degrees, thanks to the GHG saturated atmosphere. The other problem is that the sulfur dioxide-reflected sunlight would cause a “permanent whitening” of day-time skies, an effect something akin to the skies from the movie The Matrix. Unfortunately, this daffy idea has the attention of some right-wing groups in the United States including the influential conservative think-tank, the American Enterprise Institute.

Photo of the Year #1 – Putin and Buffy
Russia's Vladimir Putin is a man who likes flying in jet fighters, sparring in judo matches and wading bare-chested through Siberian rivers (and critics will say rigging elections, limiting the freedom of the press and running a mafia-like empire); but just to show he has a softer side he also hugs adorable puppies!

The Merit Promotion Award – Kim Jong-un
For his first 27 (or 28) years, the only knowledge the world had of Kim Jong-un was a blurry photograph of a young Korean boy taken at a Swiss boarding school. But when your dad is the head of the world's last remaining Stalinist state, change can come quickly; this summer Kim Jong-un was elevated to the rank of four-star general (complete with the modest title of “Great General”) and named successor to the ailing Kim Jong-il. To prove his bona fides as the “Great General”, Kim Jong-un is allegedly the one who ordered the artillery attack on the sleeping South Korean fishing village on Yeonpyeong Island, which killed four people and brought the two Koreas to the brink of war, along with going down as one of the most lopsided military conflicts since the Klingons battled the tribbles. Unfortunately, Korea observers believe that there is still a lot of internal strife over the elevation of the 27 (or 28) year old Kim Jong-un to leader-in-waiting status, promising more uncertain times on the Korean peninsula.

The “Who Can It Be Now” Award – the Togolese “National” Soccer Team
“Friendlies” - matches between the national teams of two countries – are a fixture in world football (or soccer to us Americans) circles; so that Togo's national team traveled to the Persian Gulf nation of Bahrain for a match in September wasn't unusual. But the Bahrain team was surprised by the poor quality of the Togolese side, some of whom were so out of shape they reportedly had trouble making it from one end of the field to the other; it certainly wasn't a national-caliber team, and for good reason – it wasn't the Togo national team, but rather a group of imposters gathered together for the match. The resulting scandal led to dismissals among the management of the national football authority and was a black eye for Togo's team, which earlier in the year was the victim of a terrorist massacre in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that killed two team members traveling to the Africa Cup tournament in Angola.
Honorable mention in this category goes to “Mullah Akthar Mohammad Mansour”, or at least to the guy who posed as the Taliban commander who was apparently flown into Kabul by NATO for a high-level meeting with President Karzai and given $100,000 before disappearing into Pakistan with the loot. Imagine what would be going on if we weren't winning that war...

Photo of the Year #2 – The Irish Banking Crisis
Perhaps this photo of officials from the International Monetary Fund scurrying into a meeting in Dublin on the Irish financial crisis needs no set-up...


“They Pull Me Back In” Award – Doku Umarov
In August, Doku Umarov, the leader of the Islamic militant movement in Russia's Chechnya region and the self-styled “Emir of the North Caucasus Caliphate”, announced he was retiring from jihading during an Internet press conference. A few days later Umarov held another Internet press conference to announce he was un-retiring and would once again take up the cause for jihad in southern Russia; to quote Michael Corleone: just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in...
Analysts say that the move reflects a split in the Chechen militant community between Umarov's supporters, who have thrown their lot in with al-Qaeda and have bought into Osama bin Laden's idea of a worldwide jihad, and other Chechen factions who want to ditch the global jihad talk and get back to their original mission of using terror attacks to secure independence for Chechnya, this faction supposedly didn't want to win independence from Russia only to become a small part of some new regional caliphate. Whatever the reason, it is enough to win Umarov the Pull Me Back In Award and make him the first two-time winner in the history of the AWV awards.

The Golden Cockroach – Silvio Berlusconi
Named for nature's ultimate survivor, the Golden Cockroach goes to the national leader who somehow manages to stay in power despite everything they've done during the past year; and for 2010 there's no more fitting recipient than Italy's Silvio Berlusconi. While Italy's poorly-performing economy might be enough to doom most politicians, Silvio ups the ante by making racist comments about other world leaders, cavorting with underage lingerie models, making other of his ladyfriends members of the government and hiring escorts to attend to his VIP guests at his private villa; actions that have even his own daughter speaking out against him. In November it looked like Silvio was done for, facing a “no confidence” vote by the parliament; yet somehow Silvio survived, and there are indications his ruling coalition might emerge stronger following the next election. Silvio, this cockroach is for you, you've earned it.

RIP Cable News: 1980-2010

If there was one unintended casualty of Tuesday's artillery duel between North and South Korea, it was the idea of cable television news. Fox and MSNBC may have already traded in their news credentials, maintaining only a veneer of “news” coverage in the late mornings/afternoons as cover for their respective political agitprop positions, but CNN kept plugging away in the news business, albeit as a shell of its former self. At least until yesterday.

The Korean cross-border skirmish is arguably the biggest international crisis of the year – two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed in the fighting, while South Korea is ominously warning of dire retaliation if the North strikes again. I woke up at 5:30 on Tuesday and listened to a half-hour of solid coverage of the Korea situation on the BBC World Service; at 6 I turned on CNN. To their credit, CNN led with the Korea story and brought in Jill Dougherty, one of their senior foreign correspondents for some analysis. This lasted about three minutes before CNN was onto the next story, that Will and Kate at picked a site for their wedding. At 7, CNN dedicated about two minutes to Korea before returning to the Will n' Kate story. To top it off, at about 7:15 CNN cut in with “breaking news”, which I assumed would be a development in the unfolding Korea story (silly me), instead it was to announce that Will and Kate would be married at Westminster Abbey – note to CNN: if you've already been reporting it for more than an hour, by definition it is not “breaking news”.

On Tuesday morning it was clear that the folks on CNN would much rather talk about fluffy stories like Will and Kate, or the upcoming “Dancing With The Stars” finale than the situation in Korea; it was an unmistakeable sign that CNN had gone from being television's premier news provider to just another peddler of infotainment. To make matters worse, if you ever happen to see their global version, CNN International, it's clear that the folks in Atlanta still know how to do quality, serious news programming, sadly they just don't choose to share that expertise with an American audience. In a more globalized, more interdependent world, it is more critical than ever to have access to sources of quality news. But just when the need is the greatest, the “news” networks decide to feed the viewing public a diet of nonsense.

Dr. Evil Goes To Korea

I think it's safe to say that the Kims – the ruling family of North Korea – have officially become the real-life versions of Mike Myers' uber-villian Dr. Evil. Current President-for-Life Kim Jong-Il has been heading this way for some time; from the TV screens in every hotel room that broadcast a 24/7 propaganda feed about the “Dear Leader” a la Big Brother (not to mention the very “Dear Leader” tag itself), to his one-time kidnapping of a South Korean movie star in an effort to kick-start his own country's film industry, to the mythic descriptions of his powers that include the ability to manipulate time (though coaching soccer apparently isn’t on the list). But the final straw came with this story about the elevation of his youngest son Kim Jong-un to the role of his chosen successor.

At least we think the man is Kim Jong-un, ABC News, along with Germany's Der Spiegel, is reporting that some “experts” say that the man elevated to power at last week's Worker's Party convention isn't the same person as pictured in the only known photograph of Kim Jong-un from his schoolboy days in Switzerland. His father, Kim Jong-Il has long been reputed to use doubles in his running of North Korea, in fact there are allegations that the now ailing Kim Jong-Il actually died in 2008 and since then the country has been run with a faux Kim Jong-Il as figurehead. Now, some North Korea watchers are alleging that the man put forward as Kim Jong-un is himself a double, which raises the question as to who's actually running the country, and also slips North Korea into that special realm of Dr. Evil style cartoonish super-villany.

It's important to note, as does South Korea's JoongAng Daily, that the people who engage in Kim-ology often have their own agendas and are often wrong in their assessments, so their proclaimations need to be taken with a grain of salt. But the Kim Jong-un succession does point to some serious issues within North Korea – the 27 (or 28) year old Kim Jong-un has no known military experience, yet was just given the rank of four-star general and the modest propaganda title of “Great General”, moves designed to groom him to take over for his dad as leader of North Korea (or possibly for his double to take over for his dad's double). China, North Korea's biggest patron, is trying to put a positive spin on the Kim Jong-un succession, saying it points to stability within North Korea; some analysts are also suggesting that Kim Jong-un, who has actually lived abroad, is likely to be more open to engaging with the wider world than his father ever was. Officials in the United States and South Korea are more pessimistic, saying that the dynastic rule emerging in North Korea is actually a step back from the pro-reform efforts that were underway in the early 2000s and that since the succession discussions began in 2008, the propaganda coming out of North Korea has gotten decidedly more hardline, likely in an effort to build an image of the Kim family as the strong and rightful leaders of North Korea.

Peace At Last! World War I Finally Ends

Some great news out of Europe – the First World War, a conflict so horrible it was known as the “war to end all wars” is finally officially ending 96 years after it began.

And no, you didn't miss 90 years of history, the fighting actually did end in 1918 and the conflict officially came to a halt in 1919 with the signing of the Treaty of Versailles.  But that treaty also stipulated that Germany pay war reparations, primarily to Belgium and France; on Sunday Germany will make the last of those payments with a sum of approximately $93 million, finally satisfying the conditions of the Treaty of Versailles and “officially” ending the war.

As a condition to the treaty, France and Belgium demanded enormous sums of money as reparations from Germany, about 226 billion Reichmarks in 1919.  John Maynard Keynes, Britain's top negotiator at the time, was so outraged at the sum that he walked away from the peace negotiations and warned that Germany wouldn't be able to properly recover from the war themselves if they had to payout so much of their national treasury to France and Belgium, a condition Keynes said would lead to future problems.  Those future problems turned out to be World War II.  The huge debt payments did, as Keynes predicted, bankrupt the German state in the 1920s; which led to the rise of Hitler and the Nazi Party.  The rest, as they say, is history.

The German payment will go towards paying off bonds issued after the end of the conflict against the payments Germany owed to the Allied nations, most of those bonds today are held individuals or organizations like pension funds.  And in case you’re wondering, officially World War II isn’t over either – at least as far as Russia and Japan are concerned, the two sides have never signed a peace treaty due to a dispute over the Kuril Islands, which Russia occupied from Japan in the final days of the war and continue to hold to this day.  North and South Korea have also never signed a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War either.

Accusations Fly Over North Korean Healthcare

One of the world’s top human rights organizations and the United Nations main health agency haven gotten into an outright catfight over the state of healthcare in North Korea.

Three months ago the World Health Organization released a study calling the North Korean state-run healthcare system the “envy of the developing world,” saying that the country offered universal coverage to its citizens thanks to an ample supply of doctors and nurses who efficiently delivered their services. On Thursday, Amnesty International replied with a report of their own on that basically called the WHO’s study nonsense (we’re being polite here). Amnesty’s own report was filled with stories of doctors performing amputations without anesthesia and of hospitals lit by candlelight due to a lack of electricity. The study further found that medical services often weren’t available unless the patient was first able to pay the doctor a bribe first (presumably for their amputation-by-candlelight). The WHO, in turn, has shot back, defending the methodology of their study while attacking Amnesty International’s, which they claim was based largely on anecdotal stories, some dating back ten years. They added for good measure that the horror stories were not confirmed by the WHO’s own study of the North Korean system.

The Associated Press story mentions in passing an interesting phenomenon possibly at play in the WHO report on North Korea – namely that groups like the WHO rely on the will of the government to operate within a given country, and in some cases (like North Korea), this means dealing with some pretty odious regimes. It’s a discussion that I’ve had with some people I know who work within the UN system. They realize that there is a belief among some in the general public that the United Nations tends to go easy on the world’s bad governments. Of course they realize that leaders like Kim Jong-il are pretty heinous people, but they also realize if they’re too critical of the local despot, they will be kicked out of the country. So, my UN colleagues explain, they hold their tongues for the greater good of providing what aid they can to people living on the margins of societies where the government could in fact care less if they live or die (and in some cases would actually prefer the latter).

It’s a hard point to argue in some ways, though the critique of the WHO report on North Korea was that it was just so positive in discussing their health care system, far beyond what its expected would be needed to keep the Dear Leader happy and out of the WHO’s hair. When questioned on Friday in response to the Amnesty report on what developing countries “envied” the North Korean health care system, a WHO spokeswoman couldn’t name any. The WHO-Amnesty debate isn’t likely to go away anytime soon neither is the debate on how far the UN should go along in trying to appease the world’s dictators just so they can continue to operate within their countries.

NoKo propaganda poster from the Sci-Tech Heretic.

Update #1 – Coach Kim Jong-il

On Saturday I wrote about Team North Korea’s trip to the World Cup – the country’s first appearance in the global tournament since 1966. Among the oddities of Team NoKo, is the rumor that North Korea’s “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il has a special, secret hotline to the North Korean bench to give his own special brand of soccer “advice” during their games.

Since then North Korea was thoroughly thumped by Portugal 7-0 on Monday, and South Korea’s Chosun lIbo is suggesting that Kim Jong-il himself might be responsible for the team’s crushing defeat. According to the Chosun, the North Korean team played in a way very unlike the style of Coach Kim Jong-hun (no relation), prompting some to speculate that he was influenced by someone outside to change the team’s strategy, and the only person with that sort of pull would be the Dear Leader himself. In a press conference last week, Kim Jong-hun confirmed that Kim Jong-il provides “advice” to the team, the type of statement he couldn’t have made unless permitted by Jong-il, which adds to the speculation that he was in fact whispering in the coach’s ear.

Kim Jong-il’s regime was apparently so buoyed by North Korea’s hard-fought 2-1 loss to Brazil, regarded as one of the best sides in the world, that they allowed the North Korea-Portugal match to be broadcast live on North Korea’s state-run TV channels, basically an unprecedented move in the Hermit Kingdom. According to people in the North contacted secretly by the Chosun, the move has backfired spectacularly, with some North Koreans so upset by the 7-0 defeat they “drank themselves senseless” and will “never forgive” the players for their lopsided loss.

Go Team NoKo

Like many of my fellow Americans, I am in the midst of a strange quadrennial affliction – actually caring about soccer. A week into the tournament and I find myself getting up early to catch the opening round games on ESPN, and one team that I’m quietly pulling for is the squad from North Korea.

Since the Hermit Kingdom is arguably the world’s strangest country, how can we expect their national team to be any different? The Guardian described an “icy” press conference with Team North Korea’s coaching staff, where they said the goal of the team in the World Cup was to “bring great happiness to our Dear Leader [Kim Jong-Il].” Speaking of Dear Leader Kim, he has been credited with helping the North Korean side qualify for the World Cup in the first place by giving the coaching staff “advice” – it is even rumored that he has a secret hotline to the North Korean bench, though this may just be the North Korean propaganda machine trying to give Kim another mystical quality in addition to his alleged ability to manipulate time (seriously). Meanwhile, North Korea’s only imported player – Japan-born Jong Tae-se, who plays in that nation professionally – has had a grand time introducing his new teammates to technology uncommon in North Korea, like cellphones and pay toilets. According to Jong, when a teammate saw a pay lavatory in Switzerland, it prompted him to remark: “this is truly what capitalist society is like.”

And you won’t find many people already on the North Korean bandwagon – the team has reportedly hired as many as 1,000 Chinese to attend the team’s matches in South Africa as “fans,” something necessary I suppose when you won’t allow your own citizens to travel outside of the country unless they are members of the ruling elite. But then again, how can you not root for a team whose players make such Stalin-esque quotes as when goalkeeper Ri Myong-Guk said he felt as though he was “defending the gateway to my motherland”?

Team NoKo takes to the field again on Monday.

Jong Un On Deck

With the recent raid on the Gaza-bound relief flotilla, the ongoing crisis in the Gulf of Mexico and this week’s UN debate over new sanctions on Iran, the world’s attention has turned away from North Korea. But political life in the Hermit Kingdom is still as bizarre as ever.

On Monday Chang Sung Taek was named vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission. What makes this at all noteworthy is that the National Defense Commission is one of North Korea’s most powerful state institutions and Chang Sung Taek is regarded as a close ally of “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-Il’s youngest son Kim Jong-Un. And that brings us back to the whole complex issue of finding a successor to Kim Jong-Il, a task that has taken on a new urgency since the Dear Leader apparently suffered a serious stroke a year-and-a-half ago and is now in frail health. The belief among North Korea watchers is that Kim Jong-Il is trying to consolidate support around the twenty-something Jong-Un as his chosen successor – there is even belief that this behind the scenes power-struggle could be the motivation behind notable acts of North Korean aggression that have included nuclear and ballistic missile tests and even the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan.

Chang Sung Taek was purged from the North Korean leadership in 2004, but returned to power two years later and now has risen to its highest levels. In other news from NK, the Times of London is reporting that two other senior North Korean officials suddenly left the government – one due to a heart attack, the other killed in a car “accident”; both possible indications of some regime housecleaning ahead of the younger Kim’s taking the reigns of power. Kim Jong-Il’s decision to promote his youngest son as his successor came after his eldest – Kim Jong-Nam - fell out of favor with his father after being caught trying to sneak into Japan using a false passport apparently to visit Disneyland Tokyo (and thus in the eyes of Kim Jong-Il proving himself not to be leadership material). Recently, the passed-over Kim Jong-Nam denied South Korean media reports that he was planning to defect to someplace in Europe.

Finally, just because you’re a despotic, Stalinist state, doesn’t mean you can’t be the source of a little humor. The site NK News has a Random Insult Generator based on the speeches of Dear Leader Kim and the official North Korean news agency. Just the thing to spice up your emails with bon mots like: “you politically illiterate militarist.”

North Korea’s Own OS

“Juche” is a concept at the core of the ideology of the Kim Jong-Il regime in North Korea; loosely translated it means “self-reliance”. Apparently the Juche ideal extends even to computers and the Internet – North Korea already operates its own Internet-like information network, free from the oversight of the United States-based group ICANN, which regulates the use of Internet domains and addresses around the rest of the world. Now, North Korea is also offering up its own Linux-based OS called the “Red Star Operating System”.

Thanks to a Pyongyang-based student/correspondent, Russia Today is giving us a first-person test drive of Red Star (along with RT’s own NoKo-inspired take on the Linux penguin logo). According to “Mikhail”, Red Star is a pretty decent OS, albeit one that requires a relatively new processor and a good chunk of hard drive space (3 gigs) to run. The basic Red Star install includes a word processor, web browser, picture viewer, media player, and of course, a small selection of games like “minesweeper” (no word on whether or not the NK version of minesweeper is set in the DMZ between the two Koreas). A selection of applications that include a graphics editor, email client, notebook program (called “My Comrade”) and Windows emulator is available separately. Mikhail had Red Star up and running in about 15 minutes.

Mikhail’s review of Red Star provides an interesting insight into the way North Korea – the world’s most secretive nation – operates. It also reminded me of this story from last February about the Cuban government launching their own Linux-based OS, which they called “Nova”. The Cubans developed their own OS as a way to exercise their “technological sovereignty” and avoid, they claim, backdoors built into other operating systems by US security agencies.

The developments in Cuba and North Korea would seem to beg the question: will home-built computer operating systems become the latest tool of oppressive regimes around the world?

The Dear Leader's Birthday

North Korea’s President and “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-Il turned 69 on Tuesday (or maybe 68, like most things in the world’s most secretive nation even the president’s age is something of a mystery). And despite the massive public celebrations, the day sparked another round of speculation on what will happen once Mr. Kim finally leaves the stage for good.

The question on who will follow Kim Jong-Il took on a new urgency in mid-2008 when the Dear Leader suffered a serious health problem, now widely believed to have been a major stroke – for months there was even a strong belief that Kim was actually dead. Since then Kim has made a series of public appearances, but it is clear that his health has taken a decided turn for the worse.

Running North Korea has been a Kim family tradition since the nation split in two in 1950. Kim Jong-Il took over from North Korea’s “Eternal President”, his father Kim Il Sung following the elder Kim’s death. It was assumed that pattern would continue when Dear Leader Kim passes away as well. But Kim Jong-Il apparently thinks his eldest son is too dumb for the job (Kim Jong-Nam once tried to sneak into Japan on a fake passport to go to Disneyland Tokyo), and his second-eldest son “too effeminate”, thus passing the mantle to his twenty-something son, Kim Jong-Un. The problem is that in North Korea’s cloistered web of leadership, Kim Jong-Un has virtually no experience. According to South Korean watchers, this has led Kim Jong-Il’s sister Kim Kyong-Hui assuming more of a leadership role by taking over a portion of the Korean Workers Party, one of the state agencies that wields power within North Korea. Kim Kyong-Hui had once held a powerful position within the North Korean leadership, but had fallen out of power due to infighting within the Kim regime.

And if all of that sounds just a little too Byzantine, this week Foreign Policy magazine published a piece on their website claiming that the United States has few plans to deal with North Korea once Kim Jong-Il passes away. It’s feared that Kim’s death will spark a battle for succession within the ranks of North Korea’s leadership, which is split among the military, the Communist Party and the Kim family. In turn that could likely spark a wave of refugees fleeing from the chaos in North Korea and possibly even a conflict with South Korea. But FP argues that despite these fears, the United States has few plans in place to promote regional security or to protect our allies, the South Koreans.

Mystery Plane Detained in Thailand

Russia has had tense relations with some of its neighbors recently, but there apparently is one thing that can bring them all together - illicit arms shipments.

Officials in Thailand on Friday detained a Russian aircraft, registered in Georgia with a Belorussian crew on suspicions that it was carrying 40 tons of heavy weaponry smuggled out of North Korea. Because of North Korea's ongoing nuclear bomb and ballistic missile programs, the United Nations slapped an arms embargo on the country last June making such shipments of weapons illegal.

The mystery plane seems to have been trying to violate that embargo. The plane was seized after it stopped in Bangkok to refuel; its official manifest said it was carrying "oil drilling equipment", though upon inspection it was actually found to be full of North Korean-made weapons. The plane, crew and weapons are now being held by Thai officials.

Where the plane was ultimately heading is also a mystery. Thai officials think it would eventually have gone to Pakistan, others think that Sri Lanka, it's next stop, was also its final destination, but the pilot was quoted by China's Xinhua news service as saying they were actually headed for Ukraine.

The Next Fashion Center: North Korea?

An odd little story from the Associated Press, North Korea is apparently trying to break into the fashion world. Even though the "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-Il rarely appears in public not clad in a "Members Only" style jumpsuit, North Korea has entered into an agreement with a Swedish firm to produce designer jeans that will be sold under the "Noko Jeans" label.

The North Korean jeans were scheduled to go on sale this weekend in Stockholm and online as well. One place you won't see Noko Jeans, for sale at least, is in North Korea itself where jeans are viewed as a symbol of American "imperialism".

Brother, Can You Spare A Won?

The North Korean government briefly threw their country into chaos as they announced a revaluation of the North Korean currency, the won. North Korea is basically taking the Zimbabwean approach to controlling inflation - they're just dropping zeros off the end of their currency, in the case of North Korea, two zeros - so your 1,000 won note is now a 10 won note.


North Korea is actually ordering people to exchange their old won for new, but capping the amount they can exchange at between 100,000 and 150,000 won. The problem for North Korea is that many people, according to the New York Times, stockpiled won to buy necessities during the lean winter months, they're now likely to be stuck with a lot of now useless paper.

The currency revaluation is also widely seen as a move to rein in North Korea's booming black market, since the black marketeers will not want to get stuck with huge piles of soon to be worthless old won that they can't exchange. In recent years the black market in all sorts of goods has boomed as the state-run economy has faltered. Because of years of failed harvests and economic sanctions, the North Korean government has put tight controls in over what items are available for sale in the marketplace, who can buy them, and when - all factors that drive the black market.

(photo Yonhap News, South Korea)

World Faces Outbreak of Giant Statues

Forget swine flu, the world seems to be suffering from a new epidemic - the construction of giant statues.

First there was the dedication earlier this month in Pristina, Kosovo of an 11-foot tall, gold-covered statue of former President Bill Clinton (who the Kosovars feel helped to end the Serbian aggression against them and laid the foundation for their nation). Then there's Santiago, Chile, where construction is well underway on a 45-foot tall likeness of Pope John Paul II. A clay model of the late pontiff has already been finished, the next step would be to use that model to create a mold and cast John Paul in bronze.

But Chile's National Monuments' Council has derailed the pontiff project, at least temporarily. They felt that the size of the statue would overwhelm the city square that was intended to be its home (and they felt the location, above an underground car park, wasn't a setting quite befitting the late Pope). Since the clay model is already finished, it's likely the bronze statue - which critics have dubbed "Popezilla" - will eventually be cast and placed somewhere in or near Santiago.

Meanwhile, the biggest statue of them all is nearing completion. Work in Senegal is almost finished on "African Renaissance", a statue commissioned and allegedly designed by Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade. "African Renaissance" is a truly massive structure depicting a man cradling a woman and holding aloft a baby who is pointing towards "the future"; when finished it will be taller than the Statue of Liberty in New York City and larger in volume than the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

As you can imagine, a project that large is drawing giant amounts of criticism. Some are asking why is Senegal, a struggling nation in West Africa, spending $27 million on building this colossus rather than on programs that would do more practical things like feed hungry Senegalese? Others are also asking why "African Renaissance" was not designed or built by Africans? Instead of using local artists and craftsmen, President Wade contracted with a North Korean firm to build the monument.

And, critics say, it shows - rather than having an African feel, they say "African Renaissance" looks like an old Soviet statue. I have to admit they have a point, at first glance "African Renaissance" reminded me of the giant statues the Soviet Union use to churn out, especially under Stalin (see the example to the right), not surprising since North Korea is the world's only remaining Stalinist state. (And considering that North Korea has yet to master the art of making a durable beer bottle, I'd also be wary about hiring a North Korean firm to build a giant statue perched on a hill above my capital city).

Critics are also angry at President Wade for trying to turn a profit off the endeavour. "African Renaissance" will generate revenue from people visiting its site and a related museum that will also be built, and President Wade has cut himself in for a share of the profits - 35% of the profits to be exact. Wade explains he is entitled to the fee since he is the "designer" of the statue, many Senegalese don't agree.

"Since the beginning of the world, I have never heard, I have never seen, or never read, that a president has created something for his country, and is demanding 35% in return," said Amadou Camara, Director of the Commerce and Business Institute in Dakar in an interview with the BBC. Wade's "designer's fee" has also been the topic of numerous editorials in Dakar's newspapers.

"African Renaissance" is set to be officially unveiled in April.

Kim's Double Vision

It's starting to seem like if you're looking for a strange news story of the day you need look no farther than North Korea. The latest, from the Christian Science Monitor, is a question: last August, did former President Bill Clinton meet with North Korea's Kim Jong-Il or a Kim Jong-Double?

That's the speculation of several Japanese and South Korean analysts. During his mission to rescue two wayward American journalists, Clinton met with Dear Leader Kim. In the official photos from their meeting Kim looked far healthier than he had just a few months ago - keep in mind that for awhile in the summer 2008 the speculation was that Kim had died, now it is widely believed that the 68-year old suffered a severe stroke that has left him enfeebled.

The image of the plumper, healthier August '09 Kim is prompting a number of North Korea watchers to speculate that Clinton actually met with a Kim Jong-Il double, and that in recent months doubles have been making trips around North Korea to reinforce the idea that Kim is still the man in charge. Some analysts interviewed by the CSM went on to say that doubles may have been doing all of Kim's public appearances since 2000, and even that Kim may have actually died years ago but is still being used as a figurehead by North Korea's ruling cabal.

Whether this is true or not is anybody's guess, though Kim wouldn't be the first despot to use body doubles, Saddam Hussein was also reported to have a troop of stand-ins, including one who made his annual swim across the Tigris River.