Bald Man's Comb Redux

The brief 1981 war between Great Britain and Argentina over possession of the Falkland Islands, a pair of rocky, windswept pieces of land in the stormy South Atlantic that are home to more sheep than humans, was once famously compared to two bald men fighting over a comb.  It seems like at least one of the bald men is up to his old tricks again.

Earlier this month, Argentine patrol vessels boarded and detained 12 Spanish fishing vessels off the Falklands as part of what Argentina contends is a “legal” blockade of their islands (Las Malvinas, to the Argentines), which are currently being illegally occupied by the British, stating that the Falklands, along with the even more remote South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands are a “integral part of Argentine territory.”.  The Spanish replied by saying that they had legally-issued fishing permits from the government of the Falklands and contested the legality of Argentina's boarding.

Argentina's President Cristina Kirchner though is unbowed, slamming the British for “occupying” Las Malvinas, and recently calling Great Britain a “crude colonial power in decline.”  Her comments and the boarding of the Spanish vessels have brought a stinging rebuke from British foreign policy analyst, and frequent American TV pundit Nile Gardiner.  Nile typically provides a hawkish, right-wing point-of-view (no surprise since he is also the Director of the Margaret Thatcher Center at the Heritage Foundation), so perhaps it’s no surprise that his suggested reply to Pres. Kirchner is for Great Britain to go in guns a-blazing.  Gardiner says that the boarding of the Spanish vessels, licensed by the government of the Falklands to fish in their waters, should be regarded as “an act of war” and that the British should dispatch an infantry brigade, Typhoon warplanes and an attack submarine to the Falklands immediately, lest Argentina “strangle the Islands economically.”

Argentina raises the issue of sovereignty over the Falklands/Malvinas periodically; critics have charged that Pres. Kirchner uses the nationalistic fervor over the Islands to drown out critics of her domestic policies, particularly her economic ones.  Complicated the matter at the moment though is the fact that Prince William is due to be stationed in the Falklands next year as part of his tour of duty with the Royal Air Force – it is hard to imagine that the Brits would want to send the likely savior of the royal family into harms way, of course not sending him could send a message to Kirchner that maybe the British aren't all that serious about the Falklands after all...  Still, it is hard to imagine that Kirchner would want to do anything to put her country in a position of actually getting into another shooting war with Great Britain, considering how badly Argentina lost the first one and that the Argentine military really hasn't gotten much better since.

 

The whole sovereignty issue is a murky one since neither Great Britain nor Argentina have a particularly strong claim to the Falklands/Malvinas.  Typically, the preferred way a case like this would be solved is with a referendum among the disputed territory's residents, allowing them the right of self-determination.  But Argentina has steadfastly opposed this option since almost all of the Falklands 3,000 residents are of British ancestry and would surely vote for union with Queen and country, thus losing the Falklands as a nationalistic talking point for Argentine politicians for good. 

You Think This Would Be News: Argentina and Palestine

Second item for the Would Be News file, the government of Argentina announced on Monday that it recognized Palestine as a “free and independent” state within the 1967 borders. Argentina's announcement comes just three days after Brazil made a similar proclamation towards Palestine.

Argentina said it took the step of recognizing Palestine out of frustration on the progress (or lack of progress) in the “two-state” peace negotiations which started back in 1991 and continue to drag on today. This is exactly what Israel feared might happen after talks once again stalled after the Israeli side refused to renew a freeze on the construction of Israeli-only settlements within the borders of what would-be the Palestinian state. As part of a proposed deal for a one-time extension of the settlement freeze, the United States promised to block any unilateral moves by organizations like the United Nations to recognize Palestine as an independent state.

Of course that doesn't stop countries like Argentina from acting unilaterally, and apparently several other countries in Latin America are planning to issue their own statements of recognition according to the Palestinians. Even though Argentina's recognition has little practical effect, the Palestinians are hoping as more countries join in, the idea of a nation of Palestine occupying the 1967 borders will become the default position in the international community, a condition that they hope will lead to actual statehood for Palestine.

Would The US Bomb Argentina?

The setup to that question deals with the British government, which last week as part of a fiscal austerity program announced across-the-board budget cuts that included the Ministry of Defense, which will see its budget cut by 8%. To put that in some perspective that would equal a roughly $56 billion dollar cut in current US defense spending (and to put that in perspective, that figure is nearly equal to Great Britain's entire defense budget). Bearing the brunt of the MoD cuts is the Air Wing of the Royal Navy. The Royal Navy is planning to add two state-of-the-art aircraft carriers to the fleet this decade; the Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales. Normally when budgets are cut, proposed weapons systems are the first to go, but the British government found that because of the way the shipbuilding contracts for the carriers is written, it would actually be cheaper to build the carriers than to cancel the project outright. This has put the MoD in the odd position of announcing that the Queen Elizabeth will be built and put into service in 2016 without aircraft (which is kind of the whole purpose of an aircraft carrier...) for about three years until the Prince of Wales is finished; the Queen Elizabeth will then be retired in almost new condition. To make matters worse, the Royal Navy will retire their two existing carriers by 2014, leaving them without any aircraft carriers in service for three years and without any with actual airplanes aboard ship for almost six.

This situation has some in Britain – pundits, defense analysts, and judging by the comment boards of English newssites a fair number of average citizens – quite upset. The question being asked is how Great Britain can consider itself a world power without a way of projecting that power around the globe in the way that only a fully functioning aircraft carrier can. More specifically, some are asking how (or even if) Great Britain will be able to protect some of their last remaining far-flung bits of Empire, and here talk generally falls on the Falkland Islands. In 1981 a British fleet sailed halfway across the globe to wrestle the Falklands away from an invading force from Argentina (the two countries have spent nearly a century and a half of wrangling over possession of the islands, for a more detailed history, check this earlier post about the Falklands situation). Now, critics in Britain say that the MoD cuts would make a repeat of the 1981 flotilla an impossibility, while also noting that reclaiming the Falklands (or Las Malvinas as the Argentineans call them) is a recurring motif in Argentine politics and that the islands themselves may sit on rich oil and natural gas reserves, making them potentially very valuable real estate.

Some in America are upset by the British cuts as well since the British have been arguably the most active and most valuable members of the military coalitions assembled by the United States in recent years – the 1999 bombing campaign against Serbia, the first Gulf War, the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the ongoing GWOT mission in Afghanistan. The MoD cuts though make it less likely that the British will be able to participate in future American-led coalitions like they have in the past, a fact upsetting the military minds in the United States.

And all of that brings us to the question asked in the headline; does that kind of partnership go both ways? In none of the coalition examples listed before was there a direct threat to the British homeland, people or interests abroad, yet Great Britain was an active and valued participant in what were essentially American military campaigns (particularly the “Global War on Terror” and the 2003 Iraq War). So what if the British asked the United States to join in a military campaign to defend their interests, would we join? For the sake of argument, let's assume that its 2015 and after a quick naval landing Argentina has retaken the Falkland Islands. The British government has vowed to retake the islands and has assembled another armada for the long sail across the Atlantic, just as they did in 1981. The difference is in 2015 the British don't have a functioning aircraft carrier, meaning they can't protect the armada from the air or support their Marines in a landing to retake the Falklands; in modern military terms, this makes the British mission nearly suicidal. The British ask the United States to join their coalition by adding one of our aircraft carriers to the fleet and providing air support. What would our answer be?

Almost certainly, it would be no. In terms of the Falklands/Malvinas issue, the United States historically has not taken a position – not wanting to offend either our long-standing allies the British, nor wanting to upset the nations of Latin America (or to provide any anti-colonial fodder for Latin America's more leftists leaders like Hugo Chavez by backing the British claim). Since the United States has spent the last century telling the two sides to “talk” about the Falklands/Malvinas issue and didn't support the British in the 1981 operation, it's impossible to see the US agreeing to go to war with Argentina on Britain's behalf.

Of course, from the British side you'd have to wonder what was the point of backing America on all of those earlier military coalitions if the US isn't going to support you when you need them the most. It is an interesting foreign policy question indeed...

Brazil, Kenya, And The Future Of Energy

In another sign of Brazil’s growing global clout, President Lula di Silva made a visit to Kenya a key stop on his whirlwind tour of Africa; the Brazilian president is trying to build ties with Kenya, which Brazil feels could serve as an anchor that the South American country could then use to build ties with the rest of the East African Community – a trading bloc that includes five nations and 125 million people.

One specific area where Brazil is willing to lend a hand to Kenya is in the area of biofuels. Brazil is one of the world’s top producers of biodiesel (diesel fuel made from plants rather than crude oil), a distinction that has allowed Brazil to become energy independent while maintaining a strong rate of domestic growth. Biofuel production is currently only done on a very small scale in Kenya, but the Kenyan government is eager to change that and Kenyan farmers have been turning more of their land over to the production of biofuel crops in recent years. Of course that might not be a good thing and if you watched 60 Minutes this past Sunday, you probably know what I’m getting at here. 60 Minutes did a story on what they called The Great Migration, the annual trek by millions of animals across the Maasai Mara plains in Kenya, the last migration of land animals of this scale left on the planet. But the Great Migration may be in danger; the Mara River, the source of the water that grows the plants that are the cause of the migration is drying up. And the most likely reason for the Mara drying up is the deforestation of the lands at its source, deforestation occurring so that the land can then be cultivated. While Kenya is now trying to preserve the forests at the Mara’s headwaters, increased demand for biofuel crops will only encourage farmers to clear more land for cultivation and reduce the amount of water the land is able to capture in seasonal rains and then funnel into the Mara River.

Along with help in producing biofuels, Presidents di Silva and Mwai Kibaki of Kenya talked about Brazil assisting Kenya in building ports, hydroelectric plants and rehabilitating Kenya’s dilapidated network of highways. Kenya’s long-term goal is to be considered a “fully developed” nation by 2030. Brazil, meanwhile, is trying to establish itself as a fully-fledged player in global politics, and sees development deals, like the one struck with Kenya, as a way of displaying their clout on the world stage.

Black Stars Cheated Out Of WC Dreams

Ghana’s World Cup dreams ended on Friday with their loss to Uruguay. While it’s sad to see Ghana out of the tournament, it’s infuriating to see how they were knocked out.

If you haven’t been following the World Cup or the story of the “Black Stars,” they were the last African side still alive as the tournament entered the 16-team elimination round (the other five African teams did not advance past the round-robin portion). The entire continent rallied around them, an amazing feat considering how often Africa has been divided by political and/or ethnic strife. The president of Ghana prayed with the team before their match with Uruguay; their performance in the tournament even earned them an audience with Africa’s living legend, Nelson Mandela. The Ghana-Uruguay game seemed headed to a Hollywood finish – at the end of extra time Ghana striker Dominic Adiyiah sent the ball towards the net for a sure goal to give Ghana a 2-1 victory, that is until Uruguay forward Luis Suarez slapped the ball away at the goal-line. This led to a penalty kick, which Ghana missed and an eventual Ghana loss in a shootout.

Now I’m not an expert on soccer, but one thing I do know is that unless you’re the goalie, you can’t use your hands – simple enough rule. Yet Suarez did just that, saving a sure goal and Uruguay loss (since the ball would have clearly gone in, I don’t understand why this wasn’t simply an awarded goal rather than a penalty kick which could, and did, miss). That Suarez cheated to win the game was bad enough, but that he was laughing about it afterwards, “I think I made the best save of the World Cup,” Suarez said of his creative rule-breaking following the match, is infuriating (I’m glad here to see that the Associated Press’ John Leicester agrees with me on that count).

A friend of mine told me to get over it because it was “just a game.” But the big selling point of soccer/football/futbol to we Americans, the reason we should join the rest of the world in our obsession about “the beautiful game,” is that it’s much more than just a game: it is passion, human drama, and the mysteries of life all presented to us on a cool, green field (or at least that’s what the game’s proponents would like us to believe); the game even helped to spark a war between El Salvador and Honduras in 1969. It certainly wasn’t “just a game” to the millions of Africans across the continent who ignored nationality and adopted the Ghanaian side as their own.

In sports, the team you want to doesn’t always win. But to see Ghana lose thanks to the illegal action of some arrogant punk from Uruguay is pretty disheartening. It also kills my interest in the remainder of the World Cup. Frankly, I don’t care who wins – though I do hope Uruguay loses badly. For me soccer will now go back on the shelf of sports curiosities, next to bobsledding and curling, that I care about once every four years or so.

Iran, Brazil And The Quest For The A-Bomb

The United States and key European powers are continuing their push for sanctions against Iran over their nuclear development program, even as talk of a possible deal to ship enriched nuclear fuel out of Iran emerged this morning. Iran’s claim is that they are trying to develop a domestic nuclear program so that they can begin to switch the country over to nuclear power, looking forward to the day when their oil runs out; the US/Europe say this explanation is nonsense. That’s why it’s useful to take a look at this magazine ad dug up by the folks over at RealClearWorld. Printed sometime in the 1970s – and before the Three Mile Island accident, when nuclear power was still seen as the wave of the future – it’s aimed at city managers in the United States; the pitch says that since the Shah of Iran is planning to build nuclear power plants for the day when his country runs out of oil, then you too should consider nuclear for your city’s future.

So the question is that if 30-plus years ago, the Shah of Iran’s plan to build nuclear power plants made so much sense it merited an ad campaign in American magazines, why is it such a ridiculous idea today? Critics will respond by saying that much of the same knowledge/technology you need to build a nuclear power plant is also the same knowledge/tech you need to build an atomic bomb, so the Iranian nuclear power plant plan is just a cover story to hide a nefarious A-bomb production scheme.

They may be right, that Iran’s stated desire for nuclear power may just be an elaborate ruse, but that brings us to the second half of this story, via Der Spiegel magazine. In their May 7 issue they asked the question: “Is Brazil Developing the Bomb?” Three times in their history, Brazil has had secret programs to develop nuclear weapons – each was eventually abandoned. Late in 2008, Brazil released their National Defense Strategy, which called for “mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle” (the same goal Iran has been pursuing) for the eventual goal of building a fleet of Brazilian nuclear submarines. Since then, according to Der Spiegel, Brazil has done its best to keep its nuclear program out of the eyes of international inspectors – much like Iran has done with their program.

And while we’re drawing parallels with Iran, Brazil’s stated goal – mastery of nuclear production to build nuclear submarines - is also a bit sketchy. The purpose of having a nuclear reactor aboard a submarine is to give that vessel the ability to sail for years without refueling (really, the only thing that limits the time a nuclear sub can spend at sea is the amount of food it can carry for the crew). A key mission for the nuclear subs the US and Soviet Union built was to hide out under the ice of the Arctic Circle, perhaps for months at a time, ready to launch missiles should a nuclear war ever break out. It’s true that Brazil has thousands of miles of ocean coastline to patrol, but that mission could be accomplished more simply, and probably more effectively, by diesel-electric submarines that Brazil could build with the technological expertise that they have today. It makes for another dubious rationale for a nuclear program, pair that up with an air of secrecy and you have a situation much like the one we currently have with Iran, yet there has been no similar call for sanctions against Brazil to get them to drop their nuclear program.

Just something to ponder on a Monday.

Cynicism and the Falklands

Hillary Clinton added a last-minute stop to Argentina on her tour of Latin America, and waded into that country's ongoing dispute with Great Britain over the Falkland Islands, urging both nations to sit down and negotiate a settlement. If you're wondering why a new row has erupted over the tiny, wind-swept islands nearly three decades after the two countries fought a brief and bloody war for them, than check out my latest post, "Political Cynicism on Display in the Falklands" over at The Mantle, which goes into the competing claims of sovereignty put forward by each nation, along with an explanation of why a desire to distract from some domestic problems is likely at the heart of the matter today.

Al-Qaeda Airlines?

Reuters recently published an in-depth article on an incredibly sophisticated aerial drug-smuggling ring that some security experts now fear could have ties to al-Qaeda. While drug-runners have used small airplanes to ferry narcotics from Latin America into the United States for many years, the operations that Reuters reported on are far larger in scale – these smugglers are using jet aircraft, including a retired Boeing 727 passenger liner, to ferry large quantities of drugs between South America (most notably Colombia and Venezuela) and a collection of sites in western Africa.

This route allows the South American cartels to take advantage of two things; a collection of weak governments in West Africa, which are unable to properly secure their own borders; and a network of abandoned military bases and other improvised airfields. It also lets the South American cartels avoid competition from the strong Mexican drug organizations that now dominate the United States market. Once the drugs have landed in Africa, they are transshipped through waiting supply networks to cities throughout Europe. This South America-to-Europe-via-Africa route has been developing for several years, and has been wreaking havoc on several impoverished West African states. As far back as 2007, the United Nations was warning that the tiny nation of Guinea-Bissau was on a path to become Africa’s first true narcostate. Guinea-Bissau is ranked as one of the world’s least developed nations and is struggling to recover from a brutal military coup last year. According to Reuters, the country does not have a functioning aviation radar system, meaning it is virtually impossible for them to track aircraft entering their airspace.

For their part, the smugglers are becoming more sophisticated in their use of aircraft. To hide their identity, smugglers will file false flight plans before departing South America, or will change them in mid-flight. The use of phony tail numbers is also a common ploy; the UN also reported of at least one smuggler’s aircraft using a false Red Cross logo as a way of avoiding scrutiny. The scope of the jet smuggling network only came to light in late 2008 when a burned-out Boeing 727 was found on a caravan trail far out in the deserts of Mali. Smugglers had apparently landed to unload their cargo of drugs (it’s estimated the 727 could carry as much as ten tons of narcotics) but because of a mechanical problem they could not take off again, nor could they fix the problem in the middle of the desert. To hide their identity, they torched the stranded airplane.

Some security officials are growing more concerned that there could be an al-Qaeda connection growing in the trans-Atlantic drug trade. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM for short) is becoming one of the most active al-Qaeda franchises, responsible for a series of terrorist acts across West Africa. The fear is that AQIM could follow the lead of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which gets much of its operating revenue these days from the sale of opium. Last year three men from Mali, believed to have terrorist ties, were arrested in a drug smuggling sting in Ghana, which has sparked some of the concerns of an AQIM-South America connection. And it’s worth noting that these aircraft could carry any kind of cargo – including weapons or people – on their return trips to South America, stoking further fears among terrorism analysts.

Right now the intelligence community seems to be wrestling with the seriousness of the security threat that the South American-African drug route poses and the level of AQIM’s involvement in it. But it is certainly an area to keep an eye on.

Brazil's Mystery of The Twins

On Thursday, The Week magazine jumped into an odd conspiracy theory making the rounds on The Internet - why a small town in Brazil has so many sets of twins?

In fact, the village of Cândido Godói has about 1,000 percent more twins than the global average, and many of them, supposedly, are blond-haired and blue-eyed, also genetic rarities in Brazil (and the photo editors at The Week show that they really know how to illustrate a story). The conspiracy theory is that the boom in Nordic-looking twins is in fact the result of secret genetic experimentation by Nazi doctor Josef Mengele, who fled to South America after the end of World War II.

And how could a story that juicy not be an Internet sensation? But in their round-up The Week cites one source that says the twin birth boom in Cândido Godói goes back to 1927, well before the alleged arrival of Mengele. A secondary conspiracy theory suggests that Mengele didn't experiment on people in the village, but on their cows, whose milk and meat was eaten by villagers, thus producing an abundance of twins (the 1927 part though still isn't explained). And at least one person in The Week's comment section noted that in the National Geographic report that sparked the whole story, most of the twins shown are neither blond or blue-eyed.

The take-away here is to remember on The Internet, stories are often too good to believe.

War Worries Over Colombia/Venezuela

This week our friends from Canada, MacLean's Magazine, offer up a nice summary about a growing concern in South America - fear over a war between Colombia and Venezuela. Hugo Chavez has been making a lot of noise recently about his neighbor, but noise and Hugo Chavez pretty much go together. What has people concerned now, particularly people in Colombia, is Chavez's decision earlier this month to move 15,000 troops to the border between their two nations, supposedly to increase security after two Venezuelan border guards were shot.

Chavez is also furious over Colombia's signing a deal with the United States last month that gives the US access to seven Colombian military bases supposedly to help fight drug traffickers operating in their country. The subtext to Colombia's courting of the US though is that they have been accusing Venezuela of giving sanctuary to the FARC rebels who have been fighting a decades-long insurgency/terrorist campaign against Colombia's government. Chavez sees the agreement as setting the stage for a US invasion of Venezuela (Chavez accused the CIA of being behind a 2002 coup attempt that briefly removed him from power).

Of course it's hard to believe that the Colombian base deal is really the first step in a US invasion of Venezuela - especially since the US military is already so overstretched dealing with Iraq, Afghanistan and the way things are heading, perhaps military action against Iran as well. The problem is though with tensions running high between Colombia and Venezuela and troops massed at the border, a small event could rapidly spin out of control into something far worse.

Stay tuned...

World Faces Outbreak of Giant Statues

Forget swine flu, the world seems to be suffering from a new epidemic - the construction of giant statues.

First there was the dedication earlier this month in Pristina, Kosovo of an 11-foot tall, gold-covered statue of former President Bill Clinton (who the Kosovars feel helped to end the Serbian aggression against them and laid the foundation for their nation). Then there's Santiago, Chile, where construction is well underway on a 45-foot tall likeness of Pope John Paul II. A clay model of the late pontiff has already been finished, the next step would be to use that model to create a mold and cast John Paul in bronze.

But Chile's National Monuments' Council has derailed the pontiff project, at least temporarily. They felt that the size of the statue would overwhelm the city square that was intended to be its home (and they felt the location, above an underground car park, wasn't a setting quite befitting the late Pope). Since the clay model is already finished, it's likely the bronze statue - which critics have dubbed "Popezilla" - will eventually be cast and placed somewhere in or near Santiago.

Meanwhile, the biggest statue of them all is nearing completion. Work in Senegal is almost finished on "African Renaissance", a statue commissioned and allegedly designed by Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade. "African Renaissance" is a truly massive structure depicting a man cradling a woman and holding aloft a baby who is pointing towards "the future"; when finished it will be taller than the Statue of Liberty in New York City and larger in volume than the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

As you can imagine, a project that large is drawing giant amounts of criticism. Some are asking why is Senegal, a struggling nation in West Africa, spending $27 million on building this colossus rather than on programs that would do more practical things like feed hungry Senegalese? Others are also asking why "African Renaissance" was not designed or built by Africans? Instead of using local artists and craftsmen, President Wade contracted with a North Korean firm to build the monument.

And, critics say, it shows - rather than having an African feel, they say "African Renaissance" looks like an old Soviet statue. I have to admit they have a point, at first glance "African Renaissance" reminded me of the giant statues the Soviet Union use to churn out, especially under Stalin (see the example to the right), not surprising since North Korea is the world's only remaining Stalinist state. (And considering that North Korea has yet to master the art of making a durable beer bottle, I'd also be wary about hiring a North Korean firm to build a giant statue perched on a hill above my capital city).

Critics are also angry at President Wade for trying to turn a profit off the endeavour. "African Renaissance" will generate revenue from people visiting its site and a related museum that will also be built, and President Wade has cut himself in for a share of the profits - 35% of the profits to be exact. Wade explains he is entitled to the fee since he is the "designer" of the statue, many Senegalese don't agree.

"Since the beginning of the world, I have never heard, I have never seen, or never read, that a president has created something for his country, and is demanding 35% in return," said Amadou Camara, Director of the Commerce and Business Institute in Dakar in an interview with the BBC. Wade's "designer's fee" has also been the topic of numerous editorials in Dakar's newspapers.

"African Renaissance" is set to be officially unveiled in April.

A New Look At An Old War

A new book is prompting a re-examination of a controversial figure from South American history and is dredging up some hard feelings between two neighboring countries.

Eliza Lynch has been painted as a former Irish prostitute who became the unofficial "Queen of Paraguay" that led her country into a disastrous war with Brazil. Now a new book, The Lives of Eliza Lynch: Scandal and Courage, by Michael Lillis, a former diplomat, and Ronan Fanning, a historian is taking a new view of Lynch. Rather than a bloodthirsty wanna-be Queen, they say Lynch was a loyal wife to dictator Francisco Solano López, and the authors say that that López, not Lynch, was the one who pushed for the ill-fated war against the "Triple Alliance" of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay in 1864.

The war was an utter disaster for Paraguay - Brazilian forces would rampage throughout the country, leaving 90% of Paraguay's men dead. In addition to trying to rehabilitate the image of Lynch, the authors also say that the Brazilians bear responsibility for what they call a "near genocide" during the final two years of the six year war as Brazil's Emperor Dom Pedro II tried to wipe out every last remnant of Paraguay's military.

With their portrayal of Francisco Solano López and Emperor Dom Pedro II, authors Lillis and Fanning have managed to anger people in both Paraguay and Brazil - they have received death threats from Paraguayan nationalists upset at their treatment of López, while the Brazilians have bristled at charges of genocide, who note that it was Paraguay who started the war in the first place.

Meanwhile in modern-day South America, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez told his military on Sunday to "prepare" for war with Colombia. Chavez has accused Colombia of being a puppet of the United States and has said that the US is negotiating a ten-year lease for a Colombian military base to use it as a stepping stone for an eventual US-led invasion of Venezuela. Relations between Venezuela and Colombia have been getting steadily worse, on Thursday Venezuela sent 15,000 soldiers to the Colombian border, supposedly to fight drug trafficking.

Rio Wins the Olympics, is India Next?

So you've probably heard by now that Rio de Janeiro won the rights to host the 2016 Summer Olympics yesterday, despite a last-minute appearance by Barack Obama on behalf of America’s entry, Chicago. And you've probably also heard that the President's critics are slamming him for not bringing the games to Chicago, saying it's a sign of his ebbing political fortunes both at home and abroad.


Politics did play a huge role in the selection of Rio as the host city, but the critics are wrong - Obama had nothing to do with Chicago getting, or not getting, the Games, instead the selection of Rio is best seen as the product of the International Olympic Committee's own bizarre internal politics.

Going into the vote, the folks from Chicago were actually worried that, despite having a strong bid, they'd lose in the first round. Why? Because of geography. IOC members tend to support host cities in their neighborhoods, so the Europeans were expected to back Madrid; the Asians, Tokyo; and the South Americans (and likely Africans), Rio. That left Chicago without a real base of geographic support, and their fears of a first-round exit came to pass.

Meanwhile, Juan Antonio Samaranch - the powerful former head of the IOC and the man largely responsible during his two decades of leadership for transforming the Olympics from a quaint quadrennial sporting event into a marketing and merchandising juggernaut - made a personal plea on behalf of his hometown, Madrid, a factor that is probably responsible for Madrid making it to the final round of voting.

And there were other factors at play. The Huffington Post ran a piece suggesting that some IOC members voted against Chicago because of the United States' tough visa regime post 9/11. An IOC member from Pakistan was quoted as saying coming into the US these days for a foreigner can be "a harrowing experience" because of strict visa requirements. Finally, there is a long-running dispute between the IOC and USOC over issues of private funding for the Games as well as sharing television revenues that likely soured some voters on Chicago’s bid.

But the biggest factor working against Chicago was simply that there was a huge desire within the IOC to continue their commitment towards bringing the Games to new parts of the world, and South America (and with the exception of Australia, the entire Southern Hemisphere for that matter) has never before hosted an Olympics Games. This was a fact played up by the Rio delegation, who passed out maps before the vote showing the locations of previous Games - North America and Western Europe were well-covered, the were a few cities highlighted in Asia, but starkly none in South America. While Olympic votes are usually close-fought things, in the final round Rio won by a 2-to-1 margin.

My prediction is now that Rio has won the rights to the 2016 Games, look for India to make a serious push to bring the 2020 Games to Delhi (the 2020 Games will be awarded in the summer of 2011). India is now the only one of the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China - the countries seen as having the largest, most-dynamic emerging economies in the world) not to be selected to host an Olympics. Last year China used the Beijing Games as a national coming out party, a chance to show the world China had arrived as a major industrial and cultural power. Russia will use the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi as a similar showcase for their rise from the collapse of the Soviet Union, of course Rio 2016 will be Brazil's chance to show that they too have arrived among the 'First World' of nations. It only follows then that India will be eager to show that they too belong in the club, and in the 21st century, there’s no bigger way of showing that then to host the Olympics.

Could Bolivia build a tunnel to the Pacific?

Once, a long time ago, Bolivia had a coastline, accessing the Pacific Ocean through the mineral-rich Department of Litoral. But then Bolivia fought a war with neighboring Chile for control of the territory - Bolivia lost not only the war but control over Litoral and access to the sea as well.

Now a trio of Chilean architects have come up with a plan to once again give Bolivia access to the Pacific, via a nearly 100-mile long tunnel to an artificial island. The proposed tunnel would snake along the Peru-Chile border, delivering road and rail traffic to an artificial island created in the Pacific from soil dug out of the tunnel's path. The tunnel could also carry pipelines for oil and natural gas as well.

There are a few problems with the plan though, beyond the obvious ones of the outrageous cost and technical difficulties involved in building a 100-mile tunnel: the exact border between Peru and Chile is still under dispute, and the new island would be smack in the middle of both countries territorial waters, another area of disagreement between the two sides.

The architects though say that these are political problems that can be solved and point out that other cross-border tunnels around the world have been vehicles to bring nations together.

Sorry Monroe, Russia and China are playing in our backyard

In the nearly 200 years since President James Monroe stated the foreign policy doctrine the bears his name (that would be the Monroe Doctrine of course), the United States has looked at Latin America as our backyard. Now the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean are holding a historic summit, the inaugural "Latin American and Caribbean Summit on Integration and Development" and the United States isn't invited.

But Russia and China are.

You can only take it as another sign of the United State's waning influence in a part of the world we once thought of as "ours". Even while it seemed like the world was eagerly following this past November's presidential election, a region-wide poll found that Latin America was largely indifferent to the outcome; the thought was that neither Obama nor McCain would really focus on the region.

It seemed like it would be very different when George W. took office in 2001. He touted the relationship he developed while governor of Texas with (then) Mexican President Vincente Fox as a sign of America's close relationship with Latin America, but the region quickly fell off Bush's radar. In the end, Chinese President Hu Jintao wound up spending more time in the Latin America than did Bush. China and Russia have also seen their investments in the region triple in recent years, while America's fell by nearly a quarter. China has become Chile's biggest export partner, while Russian companies are making big investments in the energy sectors in Venezuela and Bolivia. The high-profile visit to Venezuela last month by a flotilla of Russian warships is a distraction from the bigger story: Russia's increasing economic influence in the area.

So then it shouldn't be a surprise that the United States is becoming a less important player in Latin America - just because you think a place is your back yard, that doesn't mean you can ignore it and expect that circumstances will never to change. One last thing that will probably irk some folks in Washington - the conference will be the coming out party for Cuba's Raul Castro who is making his first trip abroad since taking over the leadership of Cuba from his brother Fidel.

Forget the Russian fleet and Venezuela

On Monday a task force of four Russian warships, including the flagship of their Northern Fleet the Peter the Great, will start joint exercises with the Venezuelan Navy. Of course with a flotilla of Russian warships in this hemisphere for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, terms like “new Cold War” have predictably been thrown around, but this misses the real story of both Russia’s involvement in Latin America and their navy’s role on the world stage.

While his navy was arriving off Caracas, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was busy visiting heads of state around the region to push Russia’s growing influence. Russia has begun aggressively investing in Latin America, their trade with the region has grown by 30% each of he past three years. Granted that several billion dollars worth of that trade has been from weapons sales to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, but Russia has been steadily building ties with the country’s energy sector as well. The two countries have been busily signing accords to grant Russian companies access to Venezuela’s oil-rich Orinoco Belt and to develop a peaceful nuclear energy sector within the country. Venezuela also agreed last week to buy two Russian-built aircraft for their domestic airlines and on a number of cultural exchange programs.

Meanwhile, Russia is also rebuilding relations with their old Soviet-era ally Cuba, relations which largely fell apart during Russia’s economic collapse in the 1990s. Russia has now agreed to help Cuba with the exploration of deep-water oil fields off the Cuban coast now thought to hold billions of barrels of oil, to participate in rebuilding a Soviet-era refinery in the port city of Cienfuegos, and to establish a new satellite-tracking center. Cuba, in turn, has discussed joining GLONAST, Russia’s home-built GPS system. During his visit to Havana this past weekend Medvedev even paid a visit to the newly consecrated Our Lady of Kazan Russian Orthodox cathedral in the Cuban capital, a move that highlights cultural links between the countries.

Elsewhere in the region, the Russian energy giant Gazprom signed deal to develop Bolivia’s rich natural gas fields and Moscow is working at building ties with Nicaragua, where the two countries have discussed oil and gas exploration deals, the development of a new deep-water port on the Caribbean, and perhaps even the construction of the Nicaraguan Canal - an idea first proposed more than a hundred years ago - to compete with the Panama Canal, which is too narrow to accommodate many modern cargo ships.

The impact of these deals will last far longer than a port call by a flotilla of warships and will bind Russia and Latin America closer together than even several billion dollars worth of weapons sales - once a gun is sold, it’s sold but developing an oil field or a nuclear power plant will require constant and ongoing involvment on the part of the Russians.

And speaking of the flotilla – sure, the image of Russian warships sailing through the Caribbean, which the United States has long considered its backyard, is loaded with symbolism. But the really important story with the Russian Navy is taking place a half a world away.

For the past month off the Horn of Africa the humble frigate Neustrashimy (“Fearless” in Russian) has been doing battle with Somali pirates. So far the Neustrashimy has helped to foil two pirate attacks and has escorted six convoys of merchant ships through the Gulf of Aden along the busy Europe-to-Asia via the Suez Canal route. The Neustrashimy has used the city of Aden in Yemen as its homeport during the mission, helping Russia to rebuild ties with another neglected Soviet-era ally.

So why is the action of one frigate more important than a whole task force featuring one of Russia’s most powerful warships? Because the Neustrashimy is actually doing something. The ships in Venezuela are basically engaged in a photo op (a photo op heavy with symbolism yes, but a photo op nonetheless), while the Neustrashimy is engaged in a military operation on an equal footing with ships from the navies of India, South Korea and a host of NATO members. It is an example that the much-maligned Russian Navy (when Russia first announced the Venezuela mission a US State Dept. official quipped that they were surprised Russia found ships that could sail that far) has the ability to participate in an operation with some of the world’s top navies. It sends a far more powerful message of Russia’s global reach than any photo op ever could.

Brazilian president urges emerging countries to unite

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has laid the blame for the world's financial crisis firmly at the feet of the world's developed countries. At a meeting of IBSA (India-Brazil-South Africa), Lula said that the world's emerging economies needed to work together to avoid suffering as a result of the downturn.

“We risk being victims of a financial crisis generated by the rich countries. That is not fair,” he said. “It is unacceptable for us to pay for the irresponsibility of speculators who turned the world into a gigantic casino.”

The leaders of the three IBSA countries said the crisis is another example of why world policy organizations need to be reformed, that they for too long have been dominated by countries from the Northern Hemisphere of the globe - at the expense of nations in the South (if you study development in international affairs you hear a lot about what’s called the “Global South”, the countries below the equator that tend to lag behind the developed nations of Europe, North America and Japan, all of which are on the northern half of the globe). Lula’s comments show that the developing world (for lack of a better term) is now much more willing to find their own solutions to problems rather than relying on the existing global powers (those countries of the north) to solve the problems for them.

It’s a feeling that goes along with a growing call to reform bodies like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and Group of Seven (G7) to make them more responsive to the needs of the developing world. Since the recent global crisis was made possible by the financial reforms pushed by the developed countries - to use President Lula's terms - these calls are only getting louder.

One idea being put forward by Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, is to expand the G7 to 14 nations by adding Russia, China, India, South Africa, Mexico and Saudi Arabia to the mix. Zoellick's view is that the current G7 isn't working and that by expanding to the G14 the group will represent a much broader cross-section of the globe and will be more sensitive to the needs and problems of developing nations. Ultimately Zoellick said that the G14 would lead to a more stable world.

From bad to worse in Bolivia

Things in Bolivia are getting worse, with anti-government rioting in the state of Pando killing as many as 18 people. President Evo Morales had government troops arrest the governor of Pando, Leopoldo Fernandez, and charge him with genocide in the death of the protestors.

Morales' attempts at land reform and spreading Bolivia's natural gas revenues with the country's poorest citizens have caused deep splits within the country. The governors of several of the countries richest states - the ones where the natural gas reserves are located - are bitterly opposed to Morales' plans. Meanwhile the country's poorest citizens - often indigenous people like Morales, who could become landowners under his plan - are threatening violence if the land reforms aren't allowed to go forward.

And in a sign of the United States diminishing influence in a region once considered America's back yard, the leaders of several other South American nations excluded the US from crisis talks in Chile aimed at finding a resolution to the Bolivian crisis.

Russian warships to visit Venezuela

Russian warships will be in the Caribbean Sea this November.

Four of them, including the "Peter the Great", flagship of their Northern Fleet, will be conducting a joint naval exercise with ships from Venezuela. Given Russia's annoyance and Hugo Chavez's generally poor relationship with the United States, it's hard not to see this as a move designed to bother Washington, a sort of tit-for-tat exercise of playing in each other's backyard: the US sends warships to deliver aid to Georgia, so now Russian ships are coming to Venezuela. Washington has tried to downplay the importance of exercise, with one State Department official even wondering if ships from the Russian Navy could even sail all the way to Venezuela without breaking down.

Earlier this summer Russia agreed to a $2 billion arms sale to Venezuela, and Hugo Chavez has called his country Russia's most important partner in this hemisphere. In addition to the ships, Venezuela will also play host to a number of Russian military aircraft that will be involved in the naval exercise.

Isolated tribe spotted in Brazil

It’s really amazing that in the 21st century tribes like this can still exist. But government officials in Brazil say that this tribe is legitimate, and that they are one of a few dozen primitive tribes believed to be living along the Brazil/Peru border. These tribes have never been in contact with outsiders.

The footage, shot from an airplane, shows several men, their bodies painted (red, brown and one solid black) coming out of thatch huts. They seem upset by the plane and several try to shoot arrows at it.

Brazil released the footage of the tribe to prove that isolated tribes like these do still exist. They are increasingly at risk from illegal logging operations in the Amazonian basin. In the past isolated tribes have not fared well after contact with outsiders. They often have no resistance to diseases brought by outsiders; even a common cold can be fatal.

Survival International - a group that supports primitive tribal cultures worldwide - estimates that only about 100 tribes like these still exist, about half are believed to be in the Amazon basin.