Get Your War On: Venezuela Edition

You would think that with the United States already bogged down in two unwinnable military engagements (Iraq and Afghanistan) the punditocracy wouldn't be advocating for a third, yet the sabre-rattling towards Iran, and occasionally North Korea, would indicate that two conflicts just aren't enough for some people. Now you can add Venezuela to that list, which as Rizwan Ladha alleges in the Huffington Post, is actively pursuing a nuclear weapons program in partnership with that other nuclear bogeyman, Iran.

Ladha's post is heavy on the rhetoric, light on facts and is largely a rehash of an earlier column written by Roger Noriega, whose own motives in raising allegations against Venezuela must be carefully scrutinized given Noriega's association with the Neoconservative movement and his long history in battling Leftist governments in Latin America (Noriega was an Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs under President George W. Bush and is currently a fellow with the conservative American Enterprise Institute). Among the flaws in Ladha's article are his misidentifying Venezuela as a Southern Hemisphere nation (it's north of the equator) and his implication that the southern half of the globe has always been a nuclear-free zone – South Africa developed their own nuclear weapons, which they gave up at the end of the country's Apartheid regime. Ladha's biggest flaw though is failing to offer up any truly compelling evidence that Venezuela and Iran are collaborating on building nukes. Iran insists that their nuclear program is designed for the peaceful generation of electrical power only; while the world may have its doubts on the Iranian claims, there's no definitive proof to refute them. So right now it's a stretch to say that Iran is developing nukes, it's an even bigger stretch to say that Iran has reached such an advanced level of expertise that they are in a position to help another country establish a nuclear weapons program of their own.

Ladha ends his piece by saying that even if Venezuela is trying to build a nuclear bomb, there's really nothing we can do about it. While this may be correct, talking about a leader like Hugo Chavez – widely regarded in the United States as someone who is both erratic and staunchly anti-American – getting a nuclear bomb is something political leaders in the US aren't going to stand for, recall how the most-effective bit of agitprop used by the Bush administration to build the dubious case for war with Iraq were the claims that Saddam Hussein was actively pursuing his own nuclear weapons program. You can't just raise the spectre of the nuclear genie in the hands of one of America's “enemies” and then tell people to live with it, something I suspect that deep down Ladha and Noriega know all too well.

Al-Qaeda Airlines?

Reuters recently published an in-depth article on an incredibly sophisticated aerial drug-smuggling ring that some security experts now fear could have ties to al-Qaeda. While drug-runners have used small airplanes to ferry narcotics from Latin America into the United States for many years, the operations that Reuters reported on are far larger in scale – these smugglers are using jet aircraft, including a retired Boeing 727 passenger liner, to ferry large quantities of drugs between South America (most notably Colombia and Venezuela) and a collection of sites in western Africa.

This route allows the South American cartels to take advantage of two things; a collection of weak governments in West Africa, which are unable to properly secure their own borders; and a network of abandoned military bases and other improvised airfields. It also lets the South American cartels avoid competition from the strong Mexican drug organizations that now dominate the United States market. Once the drugs have landed in Africa, they are transshipped through waiting supply networks to cities throughout Europe. This South America-to-Europe-via-Africa route has been developing for several years, and has been wreaking havoc on several impoverished West African states. As far back as 2007, the United Nations was warning that the tiny nation of Guinea-Bissau was on a path to become Africa’s first true narcostate. Guinea-Bissau is ranked as one of the world’s least developed nations and is struggling to recover from a brutal military coup last year. According to Reuters, the country does not have a functioning aviation radar system, meaning it is virtually impossible for them to track aircraft entering their airspace.

For their part, the smugglers are becoming more sophisticated in their use of aircraft. To hide their identity, smugglers will file false flight plans before departing South America, or will change them in mid-flight. The use of phony tail numbers is also a common ploy; the UN also reported of at least one smuggler’s aircraft using a false Red Cross logo as a way of avoiding scrutiny. The scope of the jet smuggling network only came to light in late 2008 when a burned-out Boeing 727 was found on a caravan trail far out in the deserts of Mali. Smugglers had apparently landed to unload their cargo of drugs (it’s estimated the 727 could carry as much as ten tons of narcotics) but because of a mechanical problem they could not take off again, nor could they fix the problem in the middle of the desert. To hide their identity, they torched the stranded airplane.

Some security officials are growing more concerned that there could be an al-Qaeda connection growing in the trans-Atlantic drug trade. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM for short) is becoming one of the most active al-Qaeda franchises, responsible for a series of terrorist acts across West Africa. The fear is that AQIM could follow the lead of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which gets much of its operating revenue these days from the sale of opium. Last year three men from Mali, believed to have terrorist ties, were arrested in a drug smuggling sting in Ghana, which has sparked some of the concerns of an AQIM-South America connection. And it’s worth noting that these aircraft could carry any kind of cargo – including weapons or people – on their return trips to South America, stoking further fears among terrorism analysts.

Right now the intelligence community seems to be wrestling with the seriousness of the security threat that the South American-African drug route poses and the level of AQIM’s involvement in it. But it is certainly an area to keep an eye on.

Climate Gridlock in Copenhagen

The landmark climate talks in Copenhagen, according to most accounts, seem to be grinding to a deadlock, making it a distinct possibility that the talks - hailed as the last chance to stop permanent climate change - will end without a binding agreement.

There will be a lot more to say on the topic later, but so far the quote of the day has to go to Venezuela's Hugo Chávez who quipped earlier on his belief that the world's developed nations are standing in the way of an agreement: "if the climate were a bank it would have been saved already."

War Worries Over Colombia/Venezuela

This week our friends from Canada, MacLean's Magazine, offer up a nice summary about a growing concern in South America - fear over a war between Colombia and Venezuela. Hugo Chavez has been making a lot of noise recently about his neighbor, but noise and Hugo Chavez pretty much go together. What has people concerned now, particularly people in Colombia, is Chavez's decision earlier this month to move 15,000 troops to the border between their two nations, supposedly to increase security after two Venezuelan border guards were shot.

Chavez is also furious over Colombia's signing a deal with the United States last month that gives the US access to seven Colombian military bases supposedly to help fight drug traffickers operating in their country. The subtext to Colombia's courting of the US though is that they have been accusing Venezuela of giving sanctuary to the FARC rebels who have been fighting a decades-long insurgency/terrorist campaign against Colombia's government. Chavez sees the agreement as setting the stage for a US invasion of Venezuela (Chavez accused the CIA of being behind a 2002 coup attempt that briefly removed him from power).

Of course it's hard to believe that the Colombian base deal is really the first step in a US invasion of Venezuela - especially since the US military is already so overstretched dealing with Iraq, Afghanistan and the way things are heading, perhaps military action against Iran as well. The problem is though with tensions running high between Colombia and Venezuela and troops massed at the border, a small event could rapidly spin out of control into something far worse.

Stay tuned...

More Recognition for Abkhazia, South Ossetia

Add Venezuela to the list of countries recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence from Georgia. Of course, that's a pretty short list that includes Russia and Nicaragua, and that's it. But it is at least a little boost for the independence dreams of the two breakaway regions, and another reason for the United States to be angry with Hugo Chavez. The US continues to push for "support for Georgia's territorial integrity", despite explicitly NOT respecting Serbia's territorial integrity when it comes to Kosovo...but that's a topic we've talked about here on numerous occasions, so no need to rehash now.

So why did Pres. Chavez make the decision about Abkhazia and South Ossetia now? He's in the middle of a world tour and today's stop had him speaking with Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev - Russia is the patron of both would-be countries. And according to the last line in the VOA story: "President Medvedev also announced that Russia will sell Venezuela tanks and whatever weapons it asks for."

Sorry Monroe, Russia and China are playing in our backyard

In the nearly 200 years since President James Monroe stated the foreign policy doctrine the bears his name (that would be the Monroe Doctrine of course), the United States has looked at Latin America as our backyard. Now the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean are holding a historic summit, the inaugural "Latin American and Caribbean Summit on Integration and Development" and the United States isn't invited.

But Russia and China are.

You can only take it as another sign of the United State's waning influence in a part of the world we once thought of as "ours". Even while it seemed like the world was eagerly following this past November's presidential election, a region-wide poll found that Latin America was largely indifferent to the outcome; the thought was that neither Obama nor McCain would really focus on the region.

It seemed like it would be very different when George W. took office in 2001. He touted the relationship he developed while governor of Texas with (then) Mexican President Vincente Fox as a sign of America's close relationship with Latin America, but the region quickly fell off Bush's radar. In the end, Chinese President Hu Jintao wound up spending more time in the Latin America than did Bush. China and Russia have also seen their investments in the region triple in recent years, while America's fell by nearly a quarter. China has become Chile's biggest export partner, while Russian companies are making big investments in the energy sectors in Venezuela and Bolivia. The high-profile visit to Venezuela last month by a flotilla of Russian warships is a distraction from the bigger story: Russia's increasing economic influence in the area.

So then it shouldn't be a surprise that the United States is becoming a less important player in Latin America - just because you think a place is your back yard, that doesn't mean you can ignore it and expect that circumstances will never to change. One last thing that will probably irk some folks in Washington - the conference will be the coming out party for Cuba's Raul Castro who is making his first trip abroad since taking over the leadership of Cuba from his brother Fidel.

Forget the Russian fleet and Venezuela

On Monday a task force of four Russian warships, including the flagship of their Northern Fleet the Peter the Great, will start joint exercises with the Venezuelan Navy. Of course with a flotilla of Russian warships in this hemisphere for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, terms like “new Cold War” have predictably been thrown around, but this misses the real story of both Russia’s involvement in Latin America and their navy’s role on the world stage.

While his navy was arriving off Caracas, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was busy visiting heads of state around the region to push Russia’s growing influence. Russia has begun aggressively investing in Latin America, their trade with the region has grown by 30% each of he past three years. Granted that several billion dollars worth of that trade has been from weapons sales to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, but Russia has been steadily building ties with the country’s energy sector as well. The two countries have been busily signing accords to grant Russian companies access to Venezuela’s oil-rich Orinoco Belt and to develop a peaceful nuclear energy sector within the country. Venezuela also agreed last week to buy two Russian-built aircraft for their domestic airlines and on a number of cultural exchange programs.

Meanwhile, Russia is also rebuilding relations with their old Soviet-era ally Cuba, relations which largely fell apart during Russia’s economic collapse in the 1990s. Russia has now agreed to help Cuba with the exploration of deep-water oil fields off the Cuban coast now thought to hold billions of barrels of oil, to participate in rebuilding a Soviet-era refinery in the port city of Cienfuegos, and to establish a new satellite-tracking center. Cuba, in turn, has discussed joining GLONAST, Russia’s home-built GPS system. During his visit to Havana this past weekend Medvedev even paid a visit to the newly consecrated Our Lady of Kazan Russian Orthodox cathedral in the Cuban capital, a move that highlights cultural links between the countries.

Elsewhere in the region, the Russian energy giant Gazprom signed deal to develop Bolivia’s rich natural gas fields and Moscow is working at building ties with Nicaragua, where the two countries have discussed oil and gas exploration deals, the development of a new deep-water port on the Caribbean, and perhaps even the construction of the Nicaraguan Canal - an idea first proposed more than a hundred years ago - to compete with the Panama Canal, which is too narrow to accommodate many modern cargo ships.

The impact of these deals will last far longer than a port call by a flotilla of warships and will bind Russia and Latin America closer together than even several billion dollars worth of weapons sales - once a gun is sold, it’s sold but developing an oil field or a nuclear power plant will require constant and ongoing involvment on the part of the Russians.

And speaking of the flotilla – sure, the image of Russian warships sailing through the Caribbean, which the United States has long considered its backyard, is loaded with symbolism. But the really important story with the Russian Navy is taking place a half a world away.

For the past month off the Horn of Africa the humble frigate Neustrashimy (“Fearless” in Russian) has been doing battle with Somali pirates. So far the Neustrashimy has helped to foil two pirate attacks and has escorted six convoys of merchant ships through the Gulf of Aden along the busy Europe-to-Asia via the Suez Canal route. The Neustrashimy has used the city of Aden in Yemen as its homeport during the mission, helping Russia to rebuild ties with another neglected Soviet-era ally.

So why is the action of one frigate more important than a whole task force featuring one of Russia’s most powerful warships? Because the Neustrashimy is actually doing something. The ships in Venezuela are basically engaged in a photo op (a photo op heavy with symbolism yes, but a photo op nonetheless), while the Neustrashimy is engaged in a military operation on an equal footing with ships from the navies of India, South Korea and a host of NATO members. It is an example that the much-maligned Russian Navy (when Russia first announced the Venezuela mission a US State Dept. official quipped that they were surprised Russia found ships that could sail that far) has the ability to participate in an operation with some of the world’s top navies. It sends a far more powerful message of Russia’s global reach than any photo op ever could.

Chavez says US needs new constitution

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez says that he has the cure for the woes on Wall Street - a new constitution for the United States.

Chavez blamed capitalism for the financial crisis and said that the US should draw up a new "truly democratic" constitution. According to Chavez, America is run by a "dictatorship of the elite", namely big banks and corporations that enrich themselves at the people's expense, and that power must be returned to the people.

"Let the US empire end and let a great nation and great republic rise from the ruin ... It's time to shout 'Liberty!' again in the United States," Chavez said.

Of course the US government accuses Chavez of running Venezuela as a near dictatorship and of silencing any political opposition, so they may not be terribly open to his definition of "democracy".

Meanwhile, Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus said that perhaps Wall Street should look to the world's poorest people for idea on how to get out of this financial crisis.

Yunus has been called the "banker to the poor", his Grameen Bank helped to start the concept of microfinance - giving small loans to some of the world's poorest people to help them start small businesses to lift themselves out of poverty. With loans of a few hundred dollars or less, people in desperate poverty have been able to purchase items like sewing machines, or even a cow, that enable them to produce and sell products and earn a living. Yunus began his lending more than 30 years ago with a $27 loan to a woman in Bangladesh.

What's most amazing is that his Grameen Bank has a loan repayment rate of more than 98%. "Don't ignore them (the poor) ... we lend over a billion dollars a year," he said. "We have to get out of the mindset that the rich will do the business and the poor will have the charity," he told an audience at the Clinton Global Initiative.

Chavez gets in on the US-Bolivia row

Hugo Chavez stepped into the diplomatic spat between the US and Bolivia on Friday by kicking the US ambassador out of Venezuela.

"The Yankee ambassador to Caracas has 72 hours to leave Venezuela, in solidarity with Bolivia, with the Bolivian people, and with the Bolivian government," Chavez said. His action came just hours after the United States ordered Bolivia's ambassador to leave Washington DC, a move that was in response to Bolivia asking the US ambassador to leave on Wednesday.

Follow all that?

Bolivia's President Evo Morales accused the US ambassador of plotting with opposition leaders to undermine his rule and to even break up Bolivia. Several people have been killed in recent days in fighting between pro and anti-Morales factions in one of Bolivia's provinces, and a suspicious blast shut down one of the country's main natural gas pipelines, cutting their gas exports - natural gas is one of Bolivia's main exports, and the source of much of the country's revenue.

Chavez has long had a prickly relationship with the United States, and accused the CIA of trying to overthrow him in an attempted coup. Recently, he signed a $2 billion deal with Russia for weapons and signed deals with Russian companies to work on Venezuela's oil fields (Venezuela is the United States 4th largest supplier of oil). On Thursday Russian long-range bombers landed in Venezuela as part of a military exercise between the two countries. Chavez has said that Venezuela is Russia's most important partner in the region.

Russian warships to visit Venezuela

Russian warships will be in the Caribbean Sea this November.

Four of them, including the "Peter the Great", flagship of their Northern Fleet, will be conducting a joint naval exercise with ships from Venezuela. Given Russia's annoyance and Hugo Chavez's generally poor relationship with the United States, it's hard not to see this as a move designed to bother Washington, a sort of tit-for-tat exercise of playing in each other's backyard: the US sends warships to deliver aid to Georgia, so now Russian ships are coming to Venezuela. Washington has tried to downplay the importance of exercise, with one State Department official even wondering if ships from the Russian Navy could even sail all the way to Venezuela without breaking down.

Earlier this summer Russia agreed to a $2 billion arms sale to Venezuela, and Hugo Chavez has called his country Russia's most important partner in this hemisphere. In addition to the ships, Venezuela will also play host to a number of Russian military aircraft that will be involved in the naval exercise.

Chavez calls US ethanol production a "crime"

Yes, it’s another self-serving statement by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, but there's also a nugget of truth in there.

I wouldn't call ethanol production a crime exactly, but it is shortsighted to use food crops to produce fuel. I was thinking about this last week, as "Earth Day" seemed to morph into "Earth Week". I don't think there's a serious argument out there against global warming being real - that man is negatively affecting the climate at least to some degree. So the efforts to conserve more and pollute less are both good and necessary.

But it seems like now that society at-large has decided that global warming is such a problem that there's a rush to do something, now! And in that rush to take action some poor decisions are being made. Corn-based ethanol is one.

It takes a gallon of petroleum to produce one to one and a quarter gallons of corn-based ethanol. Ethanol is less energetic than gasoline, so your car will get lower mileage running on it. So, in the long run, corn-based ethanol doesn't actually reduce the use of gasoline. Brazil has a thriving ethanol industry using the more-efficient sugar cane as the source material. In this system at least food crops are not being diverted into fuel production, but virgin rain forest land is being plowed under so Brazil can "grow more fuel" as one TV commercial says.

Deforestation is happening in other parts of the world, places like Indonesia. In another unintended consequence it turns out that farmland is far less efficient than forests are in absorbing greenhouse gases.

This isn't to say that biofuels are a dead-end. There are some interesting possibilities - cellulose-based ethanol that uses what are now considered agricultural wastes, as a source for ethanol is a promising idea, as is bio-diesel that takes used cooking oil and refines it into diesel fuel. Imagine every McDonalds being a tiny Saudi Arabia.

The point is that going green is a good idea so long as the steps taken are well thought out. Otherwise it’s just trading one problem for another.