Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Time to go Robert

The BBC is reporting that Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe was heckled at the opening of the country's parliament today. Lawmakers from the rival MDC party interrupted Mugabe's address several times, calling him a murderer on several occasions. The outbursts left the 84-year old leader both visibly shaken and embarrassed.

Mugabe should take a lesson away from today's session - its time to call it quits.

Mugabe has turned into the stereotypical strongman leader, staying in power by imposing his will upon the country. But the irony is that strongmen are never really strong. Their supporters are far outnumbered by their opponents; fear of harsh retaliation is the only thing that keeps the masses from rising up. Once that fear is gone though, the end usually comes to the strongman - often quickly and brutally.

Take for example the case of former Romanian strongman Nicolae Ceausescu. He ruled Romania with an iron fist for 24 years, until 1989 when the people had enough. Spontaneous demonstrations took place in several of Romania's major cities, the army and state security found themselves powerless to stop them. On December 21st the largest rally occurred in the capital, Bucharest. Ceausescu tried to address the crowd, to once again scare them into submission, but failed. By the 25th he had been captured by the army (which by this point had turned on him), put on trial and executed.

The very public heckling on the opening day of Parliament shows that the fear of Mugabe is gone among his opponents, his aura as the all-powerful leader of Zimbabwe tarnished. At this point it would seem the end is inevitable for him - either those calling him a murderer will feel the political process has failed and will revolt, or his own ZANU-PF party, seeing him as a liability to their staying in power, will take care of him themselves.

Mugabe has not survived for this long without having keen survival instincts; he has to see that the writing is on the wall. All things considered accepting a deal to become a figurehead president while giving Morgan Tsvangirai considerable power as prime minister looks like his best option at this point.
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