Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has spent the past four years cultivating close relations with the United States, European Union and NATO. The American military has been training and equipping the Georgians for several years now, Saakashvili has been pushing for fast-tracking Georgia for EU and NATO membership and Tbilisi was even given the honor of a state visit by George W. Bush - yet all of these symbols of close ties between Georgia and the powers of "The West" meant nothing to Russia this weekend. Why? Because Russia realized the hollowness of that power, that when push came to shove the West would sit by and do nothing while they pounded Georgia into submission.
And Russia was right. As early as Friday (the fighting in South Ossetia having started late on Thursday), things weren't looking good for Georgia. Saakashvili went on CNN and expressed hope that the US and NATO would send military aid, but it never arrived, nor was it really even considered. The only military help he got was the loan of a few US Air Force transports to shuttle Georgian troops home from their deployment Iraq. Past that it was nothing but the usual vaguely worded statements of concern and calls for restraint.
There have been signs that America's reign as a superpower was at an end (or maybe more correctly that the idea of being a 'superpower' is a phony one) for some time now. Consider that nearly seven years after 9/11 the most powerful nation on Earth still has failed to find Osama bin Laden, or that it took nearly five years for the US to bring even some semblance of stability to Iraq, a fairly small country. Throw our European allies and NATO partners into the mix and you can add failures to get Iran to stop their nuclear program, Zimbabwe to commit to democratic reforms or of Burma to just let in humanitarian aid after a typhoon to the list of foreign policy failures.
There were always explanations of course: bin Laden was being aided by elements of the Afghani and maybe Pakistani governments, our early strategy in Iraq was flawed, Ahmadinejad and Mugabe are nuts, but the truer explanation is that we simply are not the dominant world power we think we are. Consider this - the neoconservatives who heavily influenced President Bush's foreign policy liked to think of America as "the new Rome", a benevolent, but world-ruling power. I heard a story once that at the height of the Roman Empire a man could travel on the Empire's far-flung network of roads wearing only a medallion that read "I am a citizen of Rome" for protection and arrive safely at his destination - the fear of reprisals from the Empire for attacking one of their citizens was so great, no bandit was willing to take the chance. Fast forward to today when Russia does not think twice about military action against a close ally of the US, since Russia knows we won't risk a fight over some small potatoes country like Georgia.
On a side note, the performance of the Georgian military is also likely to raise some eyebrows as well. Georgia (as a percentage of their national budget) spends more on their military than almost any other nation on Earth and for the past few years have received intensive training from the American military. Yet the Georgians seem to have been thrashed by a Russian military still struggling to rebuild after 20 years of neglect. It's something that won't help our superpower image.
In the short term the world will become a more turbulent place. Russia, China and Iran will pay even less attention now to the concerns of the West, since they know there’s nothing to back up our protests. The same goes for small-time despots, like the leaders of Sudan, who have blown off American/European protests about the humanitarian crisis in Darfur for years now and suffered no repercussions for it.
There was a telling moment on Friday, captured at the opening ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics. Bush and Putin were seated nearly side-by-side in the vip section reserved for heads of state. The camera caught Bush and Putin talking, even without sound you could tell the exchange was tense. After a few seconds Putin abruptly turned his back to Bush, leaving George hanging in mid-sentence, and walked away.
Once the illusion of the wizard is revealed, there's no going back.
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