Commentary on the Georgian conflict

While much of the mainstream media in the West seem to be reading off the same script regarding the Russia-Georgia conflict, there are some interesting points of view out there. Below I've linked to three.

First is an analysis of the conflict from the geopolitical intelligence website Stratfor: The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power. It’s a bit dense, but worth a read, though if you’re short on time the highlights are that Stratfor believes the Georgia war doesn't signal that the balance of power in the world is shifting, but rather that it already has shifted and that the West still (mistakenly) thinks about Russia as the weak nation it was in the 1990's, rather than the growing regional power it has become. It also suggest that Georgia's move into South Ossetia was thought out well in advance (though questions why the Georgians launched such a risky operation in the first place), and makes the point that Russia is not trying to rebuild the old Soviet Union (a charge I've heard a lot in the mainstream press over the last day or so), but that it is trying to build a sphere of influence (something I have also argued).

Next up is a piece from Newsweek Some Georgians Blame Saakashvili for Russian Raids that shows the finger-pointing over the failed push into South Ossetia is already starting in Georgia. It's not a surprise since not only did Saakashvili's gamble probably lose Georgia South Ossetia and Abkhazia for good, but Georgia also seems to be systematically dismantling the Georgian military as we speak.

Finally commentary on the conflict: A Path to Peace in the Caucasus from Mikhail Gorbachev, a man who likely knows a thing or two about both the region and the politics involved.