Friday, August 29, 2008

Is Turkey getting fed up with NATO?

That's the question being asked in the wake of the Russia-Georgia conflict.

According to press reports, Turkey is fed up with NATO's military build-up in the Black Sea in the wake of the conflict. So far the United States alone has sent three warships to Georgia to deliver relief supplies, with more are expected to sail for the region. Several other NATO nations have ships in the area as part of a previously planned naval exercise.

The problem is that there are limits that regulate the size of naval vessels allowed to sail into the Black Sea. The only way into the Black Sea is through two narrow straits (the Bosporus Straits and the Dardanelles) that cut through Turkey. An agreement from 1936 (The Montreaux Convention for those keeping track at home) make Turkey the gatekeeper to the Sea, if a country wants to sail a large vessel into the Black Sea, they need Turkey's permission. Turkey is said to be getting tired of the United States repeated requests to sail large military ships into the Black Sea, fearing that it will only provoke a confrontation with Russia.

Of course there's more going on here than meets the eye. Russia is Turkey's largest trading partner thanks to oil and gas shipments. Turkey also feels a little jerked around by the European Union at this point. Turkey has been a candidate for EU membership for since 1999. Since then the EU has added 12 members, but Turkey still remains on the sideline, with their potential membership coming sometime next decade at best. There is a feeling in Turkey that they are being treated unfairly, since they have undertaken many of the massive government reforms that the EU demanded they make to become a member.

So recently, Turkey has been starting to look towards the east. They upset their fellow NATO members recently by welcoming the leaders of both Iran and Sudan to Istanbul. And Turkey has not joined the NATO chorus in condemning Russia for its actions in Georgia. In fact the Wall Street Journal article points out that Turkey considers Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili "crazy enough to unleash the next world war".

Turkey could be coming to a crossroads, a time to decide if it's worth waiting around hoping the EU someday let's them in, or if its time to break with organizations like NATO and forge new alliances with their neighbors to the east.
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