Black Sea Shuffle

There's a complex dance going on in the Black Sea, and the US is stepping on its own toes. Consider what's been going on in the past few days.

First the US dispatched three warships to the Black Sea to provide humanitarian relief to Georgia. Russia has accused the US of using the missions as a cover to bring weapons to the Georgian military, a charge the US vigorously denies. The first ship docked at the Georgian port of Batumi, which is located in the south of the country, far from the fighting so aside from a few words of protest the Russians didn't do anything to stop it.

Then the US announced that the next ship, the Coast Guard cutter Dallas, would dock at Poti, which is still under Russian control. This move would put the Russian and American militaries face-to-face. Since the Russians believe that the Dallas’ mission was a secret effort to rebuild the Georgian military, a group they have worked hard to dismantle these past couple of weeks – it would seem like a recipe for conflict.

So on Tuesday Russia countered with an announcement that the Moskva was leaving its port in Sevastopol on a cruise to conduct tests on its weapons systems. The Moskva is one of the most powerful ships in Russia's navy, and the flagship of their Black Sea fleet. It took part in operations that sank one Georgian ship during the recent fighting and bottled most of the rest of Georgia's navy up in the port of Poti. Sevastopol isn’t all that far from the Georgian coast.

Still later on Tuesday Reuters reported that the US Navy had a sudden change of mind and cancelled the Dallas' visit to Poti, taking away the immediate potential for conflict between US and Russian forces.

So while it's good to see a US ship not heading into the middle of a Russian-held port with tensions and ill will running as high as they are between our two governments, its also a move that is only going to reinforce the idea among the Russian leadership that the US, NATO and EU are nothing but paper tigers who, when push comes to shove, will back down. It was a dumb idea to think to send the Dallas to Poti in the first place, and a dumb idea to use warships to deliver humanitarian aid (it's hard to imagine there's a shortage of cargo ships floating around the Black Sea or the Mediterranean that could be hired to bring in supplies) considering how high tense the situation is at the moment and that the Georgian military was trained and equipped by the US and NATO (another sore point with the Russians).

Given Russia's actions during the past two weeks, it's clear that they are not going to be swayed by vague threats of consequences, so thinking that sending a warship to dock at an occupied port would get them to leave the city was dumb, especially when the Navy wasn't (apparently) willing to follow through on the threat. The West's weak hand in dealing with Russia and Georgia just got a little weaker.

Meanwhile Pravda is reporting that the Dallas will stay off the coast of Georgia, ready to take Mikhail Saakashvili into exile should the Georgian population become angry enough with him over the failed war to rise up and kick him out of office.