Forget the Russian fleet and Venezuela

On Monday a task force of four Russian warships, including the flagship of their Northern Fleet the Peter the Great, will start joint exercises with the Venezuelan Navy. Of course with a flotilla of Russian warships in this hemisphere for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, terms like “new Cold War” have predictably been thrown around, but this misses the real story of both Russia’s involvement in Latin America and their navy’s role on the world stage.

While his navy was arriving off Caracas, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was busy visiting heads of state around the region to push Russia’s growing influence. Russia has begun aggressively investing in Latin America, their trade with the region has grown by 30% each of he past three years. Granted that several billion dollars worth of that trade has been from weapons sales to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, but Russia has been steadily building ties with the country’s energy sector as well. The two countries have been busily signing accords to grant Russian companies access to Venezuela’s oil-rich Orinoco Belt and to develop a peaceful nuclear energy sector within the country. Venezuela also agreed last week to buy two Russian-built aircraft for their domestic airlines and on a number of cultural exchange programs.

Meanwhile, Russia is also rebuilding relations with their old Soviet-era ally Cuba, relations which largely fell apart during Russia’s economic collapse in the 1990s. Russia has now agreed to help Cuba with the exploration of deep-water oil fields off the Cuban coast now thought to hold billions of barrels of oil, to participate in rebuilding a Soviet-era refinery in the port city of Cienfuegos, and to establish a new satellite-tracking center. Cuba, in turn, has discussed joining GLONAST, Russia’s home-built GPS system. During his visit to Havana this past weekend Medvedev even paid a visit to the newly consecrated Our Lady of Kazan Russian Orthodox cathedral in the Cuban capital, a move that highlights cultural links between the countries.

Elsewhere in the region, the Russian energy giant Gazprom signed deal to develop Bolivia’s rich natural gas fields and Moscow is working at building ties with Nicaragua, where the two countries have discussed oil and gas exploration deals, the development of a new deep-water port on the Caribbean, and perhaps even the construction of the Nicaraguan Canal - an idea first proposed more than a hundred years ago - to compete with the Panama Canal, which is too narrow to accommodate many modern cargo ships.

The impact of these deals will last far longer than a port call by a flotilla of warships and will bind Russia and Latin America closer together than even several billion dollars worth of weapons sales - once a gun is sold, it’s sold but developing an oil field or a nuclear power plant will require constant and ongoing involvment on the part of the Russians.

And speaking of the flotilla – sure, the image of Russian warships sailing through the Caribbean, which the United States has long considered its backyard, is loaded with symbolism. But the really important story with the Russian Navy is taking place a half a world away.

For the past month off the Horn of Africa the humble frigate Neustrashimy (“Fearless” in Russian) has been doing battle with Somali pirates. So far the Neustrashimy has helped to foil two pirate attacks and has escorted six convoys of merchant ships through the Gulf of Aden along the busy Europe-to-Asia via the Suez Canal route. The Neustrashimy has used the city of Aden in Yemen as its homeport during the mission, helping Russia to rebuild ties with another neglected Soviet-era ally.

So why is the action of one frigate more important than a whole task force featuring one of Russia’s most powerful warships? Because the Neustrashimy is actually doing something. The ships in Venezuela are basically engaged in a photo op (a photo op heavy with symbolism yes, but a photo op nonetheless), while the Neustrashimy is engaged in a military operation on an equal footing with ships from the navies of India, South Korea and a host of NATO members. It is an example that the much-maligned Russian Navy (when Russia first announced the Venezuela mission a US State Dept. official quipped that they were surprised Russia found ships that could sail that far) has the ability to participate in an operation with some of the world’s top navies. It sends a far more powerful message of Russia’s global reach than any photo op ever could.

Piracy update

The owners of a Ukrainian cargo ship captured two months ago by Somali pirates have apparently struck a deal for its release after agreeing to pay the pirates a $20 million ransom.

The capture of the MV Faina focused the world's attention on the piracy problem off Somalia because of the ship’s cargo - nearly three-dozen Soviet-era tanks. There was fear that the tanks could fall into the hands of terror groups or militias that are fighting for control of southern Somalia.

But the tanks apparently never left the ship and will be freed along with the boat and the crew once the ransom is delivered. The pirates reduced their demand for the Faina from $35 million. Since grabbing the Faina they have been quite busy, capturing dozens of other ships, including the 1,000-foot long Saudi tanker Sirius Star, with a cargo of oil worth approximately $100 million. The owners of the Sirius Star are still negotiating for its release.

Mugabe's reign nears an end

You heard it here first.

If this report from the Guardian is correct, then the regime of Robert Mugabe will soon come to an end, and it will be his own people that end it.

The Guardian is reporting that last Thursday a group of Zimbabwean soldiers rioted in the capital after not being paid. Up to now, even with Zimbabwe's economic collapse and chronic food shortages, the soldiers were always fed and paid. But apparently things have gotten so bad that now that's not even possible. One soldier told a reporter "We have no food in the barracks. There is no medication in military hospitals, and we cannot access our money in the banks."

The group of 70 soldiers from Harare's main barracks apparently waited at a bank to be paid for most of the day on Thursday, but by late in the afternoon the bank manager announced that there was no money and that the bank was closing. The soldiers then went on a vandalism spree of the bank and other nearby buildings.

As conditions in Zimbabwe have worsened, Mugabe has relied more and more on the military and state security forces to keep him in power. Earlier in the year they basically beat the opposition Movement for Democratic Change party into submission during the presidential runoff between Mugabe and the MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai, who finally dropped out of the race for his own safety and for the safety of his supporters.

But Despotism 101 says that you have to keep your troops well paid and fed. So if Mugabe isn't willing, or able, to do that, he shouldn't expect his shock troops to stay loyal to him much longer. Many a dictator in the world has been overthrown either by his own security forces or by his military deliberately choosing not to stop a popular uprising.

Mugabe could face a serious challenge as early as the middle of this week when trade unions in Zimbabwe plan a protest against his economic policy. In the past this was the kind of thing Mugabe’s troops would swiftly, and harshly, break up. We'll see how they react this time.

China-EU trade war brewing

Between the Thanksgiving Day holiday and the wall-to-wall coverage of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, one story you may have missed is the growing spat between China and the European Union (France in particular).

It all goes back to French President Nicolas Sarkozy's decision to meet with the Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled leader. China is notoriously touchy about all things Tibet, so they abruptly cancelled a planned economic summit with the EU, and business leaders in France are worried that the cancelled meeting is only the tip of the iceberg. They're especially worried about a series of pending orders between state-run Chinese airlines and Airbus aircraft to be built in France.

China wants to isolate the Dalai Lama, and they certainly don't want him meeting with world leaders since they feel that gives him the air of being a political leader himself, which they feel will only fuel the movement in Tibet for autonomy from Beijing. Now that the Olympics are finished, China isn't afraid to play hardball where trade is concerned.

Hopefully Sarkozy will stick to his guns for two reasons. First, with its cheap exports and booming economy that needs to import things like steel, oil and (of interest to the French) airplanes, China does have a lot of weight to throw around economically. But the global slowdown is affecting China as well, and they need to keep selling their exports around the world to keep their own domestic economy going. Some experts believe that if China's economy just slows down, forget actually going into a recession, it could make for big troubles at home. So while China may be strong economically, it's also vulnerable, a fact that politicians in the EU and US too often overlook.

And second if you stand up to a bully, they usually back down. China has been pursuing an aggressive strategy to replace the culture of Tibet with a Han Chinese one (Han is the dominant ethnic group in China). The Dalai Lama has long been a public embarrassment to China because of the great respect and following he has around the world, and when people think of the Dalai Lama, they think of Tibet, so China would like nothing better than to marginalize him so that they can get on with the business of squashing the remnants of Tibetan culture.

Let's hope Sarkozy doesn't make it so easy for China.

Obama effect in Greenland?

On Tuesday the residents of Greenland voted for increased home-rule of the world's largest island. Greenland officially belongs to Denmark, but the voters decided overwhelmingly to back an increased level of autonomy that some hope will one day lead to independence for the island's 57,000 residents.

Denmark will still control Greenland's foreign affairs and security, but Greenlanders will now be recognized internationally as a separate people from the Danes and will have control of the island's resources. That could be very lucrative in the future since there are believed to be large oil deposits in Greenland's territory.

Ok, but what does this have to do with Obama you ask? Take a look at this photo from the BBC story of a pro-autonomy campaign poster (the bottom right corner in particular):



There among the Kalaallisut (the official language of the Inuit people in Greenland) text written in English is the familiar Obama campaign slogan "yes we can".

Poland: Georgian shooting was a stunt

The attempted shooting last week of Georgian President Mikhail Saakasvili and his guest Polish President Lech Kaczynski near the South Ossetia border has been branded "a stunt" by Poland's internal security agency according to Russia Today.

The Agencja Bezpieczenstwa Wewnetrznego (according to the report in Russia Today) said that the shooting was staged by Georgian authorities as a public relations stunt to build sympathy for the Georgian side in the aftermath of their August conflict with Russia. The two presidents allegedly came under fire from a South Ossetian/Russian checkpoint about 100 yards away. One reason given by the ABW for their conclusion was that neither Saakasvili nor his bodyguards reacted when the shots were fired by, supposedly, hostile Russian troops.

Click here for our earlier posting on the shooting.

Meanwhile Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's envoy to NATO, told RIA Novosti that the United States was preparing to replace Saakasvili. "Georgia's friends at NATO are deeply disappointed with Saakashvili," Rogozin said in an interview, "another leader for Georgia is being prepared." The West is supposedly upset with Saakasvili for starting the war with Russia last August, even though he had been told in no uncertain terms by the United States and several other European countries not to risk a conflict with Russia and that neither NATO nor the United States would come to their aid, militarily, if they did.

Rogozin suggested that Georgia's former speaker of the parliament Nino Burdzhanadze is seen as a more acceptable leader to the Western nations who think he is less of a hot head than Saakasvili. And if it seems odd that the West (particularly the US) could pick Georgia’s leaders, keep in mind that Georgia’s previous president Eduard Shevardnadze stayed in power from the mid-1990’s through 2003 thanks in large part to support from the West; it was the verdict of international monitors that his reelection in 2003 was rigged that led to Georgia’s “Rose Revolution” and Saakasvili’s subsequent rise to power.

While all the political factions in Georgia rallied 'round the flag in the days after the conflict with Russia, more and more opposition politicians have been speaking out against Saakasvili recently, demanding that he follow through on promises of reforming his government and take responsibility for the war.

Don't poke Sarkozy

So a French company decided as a joke to put out a voodoo doll kit (complete with pins) of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy, not thinking it was funny, sued the company, citing a French law that says a person owns the right to their own image.

A French court ruled in favor of the company on the grounds of freedom of expression. An appeals court has now upheld that ruling, with one small change: they ordered the dolls be sold with a warning that using the included needles on the doll "constitutes an attack on the personal dignity of Mr. Sarkozy."

The moral of this story: don't poke Sarkozy.

Islamists threaten Somali pirates

Tension is apparently growing between Somali pirates and a militant Islamic movement that controls a wide swath of the country.

Leaders from the Islamic group Shebab (meaning "youth"), which runs much of southern and central Somalia, has condemned the pirates operating from Somalia's northern coast, reminding them that under Islamic law piracy is a crime punishable by death. Just to back up their point, Shebab has moved groups of fighters up from the south to positions just outside one of the pirate's coastal cities.

But Shebab's sudden discovery that Somalia has a problem with pirates is a little too convenient.

They only spoke out after pirates snatched the Sirius Star, a 1,000-foot long oil tanker (incidentally the largest ship ever captured by pirates), which happens to be owned by Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, in turn, have a long history of using their oil wealth to fund conservative (and militant) Islamic movements around the world, so it makes you wonder if Shebab's motive for threatening the pirates is less because they're violating Islamic law and more because they're threatening Shebab's funding.

And some residents along the pirate coast say that Shebab is divided over the whole piracy issue, with some members wanting in on what has become a very lucrative business.

Speaking of the business end of piracy, RealClearWorld posted a piece today that talked about some of the economic impacts of the recent piracy outbreak. The Danish shipping line Maersk has already ordered its tanker fleet to steer clear of the Somali coast - avoiding the much shorter Suez Canal route to Europe from Asia and the Persian Gulf and instead sailing all the way around Africa. Other shipping lines are considering the same move, all of which will likely result in higher prices for imported goods since thousands of miles will now be added onto the transport costs.

It could also make Europe more dependent on oil coming from or through Russia, and could cause real problems for Egypt where tolls for use of the Suez Canal are a major source of revenue.

Far-right Italian party says name your baby Benito

The Movimento Sociale-Fiamma Tricolore, a small far-right political party in southern Italy is offering parents nearly $2,000 if they name their new babies Benito or Rachele.

Benito, of course, was the name of Italy's World War II fascist dictator Benito Mussolini; Rachele was his wife's name. The MSFT said they are only trying to boost the region's low birth rate by offering money to help new parents and that the names are "nice" and merely a coincidence that they are connected to the former dictator and his wife.

Earlier in the year when Rome elected a neo-fascist mayor, his supporters greeted him with chants of "Il Duce!" - Mussolini's nickname.

Things like these tend to get a bemused shake of the head, but they shouldn't since they are indirectly glorifying one of the Axis leaders from WWII. Can you imagine the outrage there would be if some far-right German party gave cash rewards for parents who named their sons "Adolph" or to men to grow little Hitler moustaches?

Something to think about...

Carter: Zimbabwe "much worse" than imagined

Speaking from South Africa, former President Jimmy Carter said that the ongoing crisis in Zimbabwe is "much greater, much worse" than he had imagined.

"The entire basic structure in education, healthcare, feeding people, social services and sanitation has broken down," Carter said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times.

Carter, along with former UN chief Kofi Annan were suppose to travel to Zimbabwe last weekend, but the Zimbabwean government refused to let them in, part of a pattern, critics say, of the government refusing to admit that there are problems within the country.

Not to be outdone, the Guardian (UK) newspaper says that Zimbabwe is "on the brink of collapse". Along with its other problems, Zimbabwe is now dealing with a cholera epidemic that has, unofficially, killed 300 people, and infected an estimated 60,000 more so far. The country will also likely deal with another round of famine since the Guardian reports, this year's planting season was a loss because there was no seed available for farmers to sow. This means that Zimbabwe's farms won't be able to harvest crops until April 2010 at the earliest.

There is international help available, millions of dollars in foreign aid, but governments are waiting for the two rival factions in Zimbabwe to form a unity government, something President Robert Mugabe has been blocking for the past few months. Now South Africa, which has been serving as the mediator between Mugabe's faction and the party of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, is threatening to withhold $30 million in food aid until the two sides start talking again.

The problem is that South Africa helped to create this mess in the first place. Tsvangirai has been complaining for months that South Africa has been favoring Mugabe in the negotiations. Even a few weeks ago South Africa’s idea for a settlement in the standoff between the two sides was to let Mugabe retain partial control over the country’s security forces, the group that has been keeping him in power for much of the last decade. It’s a solution that would only allow the current situation to continue. And to threaten to withhold food aid in the face of a growing famine just seems reckless.

Meanwhile, things will only get worse for Zimbabwe.