A Danish Pole

According to a leaked report, Denmark is set to lay claim to the North Pole. Officially, the North Pole belongs to no one, but both the Danes and the Russians would like to change that. Their actions are another indication that the Arctic region is heating up politically along with physically.
Climbing global temperatures are making the formerly inaccessible Arctic wastelands valuable territory as ice retreats and new, shorter sea routes between Asia, Europe and North America open up. The Arctic is also estimated to contain 25% of the world's remaining undiscovered natural gas and oil reserves, all of which makes ownership of chunks of the Arctic a prized commodity.

Under current international law, the nations bordering the Arctic Ocean can all claim the first 13 miles from shore as their national territory; each country can also claim an area of ocean 200 miles from their coast as their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). As the name suggest, each nation has the exclusive rights to use this piece of ocean for economic interests – fishing, drilling for oil and gas, whatever. But there is a clause in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (or UNCLOS) that allows nations to extend this EEZ beyond the 200-mile limit if they can demonstrate that a geographic feature, like a mountain range, extends from their territory out beyond the 200-mile limit. That's just what the Russians and Danes are trying to do, ironically with the same feature, a sub-sea mountain range called the Lomonosov Ridge: Russia claims the Ridge runs from northern Siberia out under the sea, directly beneath the North Pole, the Danes claim that the Ridge runs from Greenland (which is still nominally controlled by Denmark) under the Pole as well.

Eventually this will be a matter for the United Nations to settle. Of course the situation could get even more confused if Greenland were to gain their independence from Denmark. Greenland recently gained a large measure of autonomy from Denmark, despite having a population of only about 60,000. Greenlanders now control their own domestic affairs, while foreign policy decisions are still made by Denmark. As a measure of Greenland's growing clout, its capital city, Nuuk (pop. 15,000) recently hosted an international gathering of representatives from the world's Arctic nations, the Arctic Council, which included the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. The purpose of the meeting was to begin discussion about how the resources and territory of the Arctic could be used and shared, with the Arctic Council serving as a mediator in these affairs.

More Manliness From Vladimir Putin

The Vladimir Putin, Man of Action calendar is just about complete. The Russian prime minister has made it a habit during his term in office of being photographed engaging in a number of incredibly “manly” situations, including: riding in a jet fighter, participating in a judo match, wading bare-chested through a Siberian river and catching a tiger in Russia’s Far East. He added another one to the album this past week while visiting the Arctic where he helped a crew attach a radio-tracking collar to a wild polar bear. The actual reason for the visit was to highlight Russia’s efforts to study the effects of global warming on local fauna and also to subtly reinforce Russia’s claims to a sizable chunk of the rapidly melting Arctic Ocean. The visual with the polar bear was good, but for me I don’t think it was quite as good at the image to the right of a fur-clad Putin riding a horse this past February through a crisp Siberian winter morning in Khakassia. That image made me think of John Wayne, unfortunately it made me think of John Wayne in one of the worst movies ever made – The Conqueror, where the Duke played Genghis Khan (seriously) and delivered lines like: “rejoice mother, there shall be feasting tonight” (again, seriously). I can only assume that none of the visual directors in the Kremlin has ever even heard of The Conqueror…

On a more serious note, for my take from last year on the cultural implications of Vladimir Putin’s he-man pictorials, click here.

Sour Grapes On The Russian Olympic Menu

The Russian Olympic Team was extremely upset by the results of the men’s figure skating after the United States’ Evan Lysacek edged out Russia’s Evgeni Plushenko for the gold medal. I have to admit I think that Russia has something of a point: Plushenko apparently skated a more technically difficult routine, yet received lower scores than Lysacek.

But Russia’s Pravda.ru took Olympic criticism to a new level with this top-to-bottom ripping of the Winter Games: “Vancouver: Mutton Dressed as Lamb”. In it, the folks at Pravda not only light into VANOC (the Vancouver organizing committee) for the men’s figure skating judging, but also for the death of Georgian luger Nodar Kumaritashvili and the drug testing of a Russian skier while her event was still underway (somehow the failure of the Olympic torch to properly rise during the opening ceremonies avoided their critique). Pravda goes on to (somewhat bizarrely) suggest that Canada’s inability to stage a “successful” Olympic Games stems from their inferiority complex over being the United States “skinny and weakling bro”, and also from still being part of the British Commonwealth. They also infer that the figure skating judging was somehow influenced by Canada competing with Russia for dominance in the Arctic Sea.

All in all, it is a stunning mix of sour grapes and conspiracy theories. At the heart though is likely frustration over the generally poor performance of the Russian Olympic team, which is currently on track for their worst-ever Olympics. That is the last thing the Russians want heading into the next Winter Games, which will be held at Sochi, Russia. Countries always want to have a strong showing at the Games they host – even mild-mannered Canada launched an aggressive training program called “Own the Podium” ahead of the Vancouver Games. Russia’s only other experience as an Olympic host were during the massively-boycotted Moscow Summer Games in 1980, so the upcoming Sochi Games are a source of immense national pride. Of course Russia, traditionally a winter sports powerhouse, wants to have a strong showing for the home crowd – but the 2010 Games have so far been a pretty poor prelude of things to come, and perhaps the frustration is showing in some pretty odd ways.

Canada To Do Some Far North Muscle-Flexing

In another indication that global warming is changing more than the climate, Canada today is starting a large-scale military exercise in their Arctic region.

Actually, Canada is referring to Operation Nanook as a "sovereignty operation" - in other words, to show that Canada is in full control over their Arctic Sea coastline and the dozens of Canadian islands that stretch up towards the North Pole. This is one of the least densely populated parts of the globe, one that had been home mostly to scattered Inuit villages that eeked out a subsistence living from the sea. But as warmer temperatures have melted sea ice, natural gas deposits in the Far North are becoming economically viable.

So too is the fabled Northwestern Passage - the sea lane between Europe and Asia across the top of the North American continent, a route that could cut weeks off the current trip. To make the trip, a ship would have to weave between islands in the Arctic Sea. Those islands belong to Canada, so the Canadians say they control the Northwestern Passage and can decide who can and can't use it. The United States feels differently, that the Northwestern Passage is an international sea lane open to all nations. When the Arctic Sea was choked with ice this was an academic argument, now that the ice is melting, well you get the idea.

Operation Nanook is meant then to show that Canada is firmly in control of its northern coastline; Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to drop in on the military exercises later in the week. And his government has pledged to build a new deep water port on the Arctic Sea as well as a new icebreaker to serve as the flagship of the Arctic fleet. But military analysts argue that Canada does not have a large enough military (even with PM Harper's proposed projects) to protect their northern interests full-time.

Arctic Ice Vanishes in State-Sized Chunks

During July of this year, a patch of the Arctic ice cap the size of Indiana melted every day, according to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center. That's a rate of shrinkage equal to 2007, when the ice cap retreated to the smallest size ever recorded. In Canada's Arctic Sea outpost of Tuktoyaktuk (which should be familiar to viewers of History's Ice Road Truckers), the edge of the ice pack is now 80 miles away from the coast, double the summertime distance from a few decades ago, and the water is so warm (that being a relative term of course), that kids have gone swimming in the ocean this summer.

Scientists said that while global temperatures, on average, have risen by a degree during the past century, that rate of increase has been double in the Arctic. They are also seeing the thick, permanent ice of the cap being replaced by a thinner ice sheet that melts each summer before refreezing as winter sets in. What this will mean to the environment in the long-term remains to be seen, but it's affect on polar bears is already becoming evident (they're getting thinner and having to spend more time swimming to get to the ice packs that they use for hunting seals).

Meanwhile on the other side of the globe a Russian-Swedish expedition is setting off from the Russian port of Murmansk on a cruise of the North East Passage around Russia's northern coastline to highlight the effects of global warming on that part of the world. Normally portions of the Passage are only open for about eight weeks a year, but this year - thanks to the retreat of the ice pack - the crew of the sailboat "Explorer of Sweden" expect to be able to sail through passages usually sealed off by ice.

The Greening of Greenland

Sometimes the biggest signs of change are the smallest. The BBC's Stephen Sackur found this out while visiting Greenland when he was served a dinner with a side order of leeks, leeks that were grown in the chef's garden just outside the kitchen.

The idea that anything could grow in Greenland - which despite the name is mostly covered in ice - is a clear indication of how at the same time global climate change is likely spelling doom for some island nations like Kiribati and the Maldives, for places like Greenland, it could lead to huge new opportunities.

Greenland is thought to be teeming with oil, natural gas and precious metal deposits that until now were locked under the Arctic ice. But by some projections, within the next two decades, Greenland could be exploiting and exporting these riches, promising a boon to the 56,000 Greenlanders. But according to Sackur, Greenlanders right now seem most excited about the prospects of growing their own vegetables and planting a forest of Siberian Larch on their treeless island.

Greenlanders Gain Home-Rule

Time to check in now on the fine folks of Greenland. You might remember this post from last November about the Greenlanders voting for increased home-rule of their island - the world's largest that's not also considered a continent.

On Monday the new Greenlandic government took power and the territory took another big step towards independence from Denmark. Greenland's government will now control the island's police, courts and other domestic programs, with Denmark only keeping control over defense and foreign-policy issues. Greenlandic (also known as Kalaallisut) will replace Danish as the island's official language.

Despite the island's huge size, its population is tiny, numbering only about 57,000, with nearly a third of that number living in the capital city, (and maybe here 'city' is an overstatement) Nuuk. But, Greenland could have a bright future, thanks to global warming. The island is incredibly rich in natural resources - oil, natural gas, coal, diamonds, uranium and other rare minerals. But the fearsome cold and dense ice that covers most of the land has made getting at those natural resources if not impossible, then financially impractical - a situation which is likely to change as the Arctic ice continues to retreat.

But according to the BBC, Greenland's new government will be more focused on domestic issues - especially in reducing high rates of domestic violence and suicide - than they will be about trying to exploit their natural resources.

Spring Goes Missing in Northern Canada

Apparently someone forgot to tell Mother Nature that it's suppose to be springtime in Northern Canada. According to the Winnipeg Free Press, as of June 11, the ground in Northern Manitoba was still completely covered in snow, the latest date ever measured. Residents in Churchill, Manitoba say they've never seen snow on the ground this late into the year and that some roads in the town remain blocked by snow drifts. Temperatures are nearly four degrees Celsius (that's almost eight degrees Fahrenheit) lower than normal.

The lack of spring in Northern Canada could wipeout an entire generation of migratory birds who give birth to chicks in the northern climes before heading south for winter. Scientists who study the habits of these birds say the late arrival of spring means that the birds won't be able to lay eggs until later in the year and that the chicks who hatch then won't be strong enough by fall to make the long flight south.

Scientists from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration though say the cold temperatures are actually a sign of climate change and global warming - that as the Arctic warms in general, there will be greater fluctuations in temperatures and that sometimes this will mean colder than usual temps.

"People often confuse climate with weather, and this spring is a weather phenomenon," said an Environment Canada spokesperson to the Winnipeg Free Press.

Russia: energy resources could spark future wars

Securing sources of energy could lead to wars in the near future and the oil and gas rich regions of the Arctic, Central Asia and Caspian Sea may be the battlefields according to Russia's National Security Strategy paper released this week.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed off on the report, which goes on to say that Russia must be prepared for the scenario where nations resort to the use of military force to secure needed oil and gas reserves. Russia borders all three of the energy-rich regions cited in the strategy.

A commentary on the report posted by the Voice of America keyed in on another segment of the strategy paper where Russia says that expansion of NATO to countries neighboring Russia is "unacceptable" - the United States so far has been a strong backer of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. The continuing plans for a US-backed anti-missile shield to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic was also cited as a "security threat" to Russia in the report.

But despite those hurdles, other observers said that the National Security Strategy showed positive signs of Russia wanting a peaceful, constructive relationship with its former Cold War adversaries, the report itself even states that Russia seeks an "equal and full-fledged strategic partnership with the United States on the basis of coinciding interests." Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine said, "the absence of tough rhetoric (in the report) reflects expectations that new agreements with the United States could be reached." He added that after years of tough talk from the Bush administration, it has taken Russian officials some time to believe that US-Russian relations could actually change in any meaningful way under President Obama. (See also this post about European-Russian perceptions and how they affect international relations.)

The Canwest News Service this week published the details of a meeting between Russian and Canadian officials that show progress between the two sides over the Arctic region. It’s estimated that a quarter of all the undiscovered oil and gas deposits left on Earth lie under the Arctic Ocean. With sea ice retreating as a result of global warming, the view of the Arctic is quickly changing from one of a frozen wasteland to a potential economic bonanza.

But that change in attitude has caused a rise in tensions among the nations bordering the Arctic - when it was a wasteland the countries surrounding it didn't worry too much about national boundaries, but now they are becoming more and more eager to assert their territorial claims. In their meeting, Russia supported Canada's claim for jurisdiction over the Northwest Passage - a potentially very lucrative commercial searoute that could shave weeks off the journey from Asia to Europe or the East Coast of North America, while also suggesting Russia, Canada and Denmark submit a joint proposal to the United Nations to determine national boundaries on the floor of the Arctic Ocean.

What's the big deal there? Oil and natural gas. Russia is attempting to claim that a vast tract of the seabed (extending right up to the North Pole) is in fact part of the Russian landmass and that rightfully all of the oil and gas beneath it therefore belongs to them. Denmark is pushing the same claim for their side (keep in mind that Greenland technically belongs to Denmark, hence their interest in the Arctic). Having the United Nations fix national boundaries would help to lessen some of the Arctic tensions.

The National Security Strategy paper will guide Russian security and government priorities through 2020.

Coming Cold War in the Far North?

I hate how the term ‘Cold War’ is thrown around anytime there’s the least bit of tension between the West and Russia, but this time it’s at least a somewhat apt description. A day after Russia announced plans to create a new Arctic military force, Canada replied that they “will not be bullied” in the Far North.

It’s an exchange that shows how tensions are rising over the Arctic region. It’s thought that a quarter of all the undiscovered oil and natural gas deposits left on the planet are under the Arctic ice. Now, thanks to global warming and the melting of the polar ice pack, these deposits may finally become commercially viable to explore.

That has the countries that ring the Arctic Ocean thinking about their policies towards the polar region. In 2007 Russia sent an expedition far into the Arctic Ocean. The expedition made news for planting a miniature Russian flag on the seabed at the exact spot of the North Pole, but the real focus of the expedition was gathering geological information to bolster a Russian claim that an undersea mountain chain called the Lomonosov Ridge is a geologic feature of the continental shelf. If proven true (a decision will be made by 2011), it would give Russia territorial rights to much of the Arctic Ocean and a potential windfall in oil and natural gas reserves.

But the Russians aren’t waiting for 2011. A new strategic paper says that by 2020 the Arctic will be Russia’s “top strategic resource base”, and with that in mind the Kremlin has announced the creation of a new military force to protect their Arctic interests. The strategy, published on the internet with no fanfare, suggests giving the Federal Security Service (FSB) responsibility for the region, drawing on a collection of Russian military units to provide security forces as-needed (in practice this would likely include elements of the Air Force and ships from Russia’s Northern Fleet).

This quiet announcement brought a very vocal response from Canada, with Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon making his ‘we won't be bullied’ remark on Friday. The view in Canada is that Russia will try to use military force to push other countries out of disputed areas in the Arctic; Cannon was following up earlier statements by Prime Minister Stephen Harper that the Arctic belongs to Canada too and that they intend to make their presence felt as well. Canada has previously announced plans to build a deep-water port in the Arctic and build a new, modern icebreaker that will be the flagship of their northern naval forces.

And while Canada and Russia are trading barbs, keep in mind that the United States and Denmark (Greenland is a territory of Denmark) also have claims on portions of the Arctic and NATO is saying that they intend to have a role in the Arctic as well. It seems like global warming isn’t the only thing heating up the Arctic.

Obama effect in Greenland?

On Tuesday the residents of Greenland voted for increased home-rule of the world's largest island. Greenland officially belongs to Denmark, but the voters decided overwhelmingly to back an increased level of autonomy that some hope will one day lead to independence for the island's 57,000 residents.

Denmark will still control Greenland's foreign affairs and security, but Greenlanders will now be recognized internationally as a separate people from the Danes and will have control of the island's resources. That could be very lucrative in the future since there are believed to be large oil deposits in Greenland's territory.

Ok, but what does this have to do with Obama you ask? Take a look at this photo from the BBC story of a pro-autonomy campaign poster (the bottom right corner in particular):



There among the Kalaallisut (the official language of the Inuit people in Greenland) text written in English is the familiar Obama campaign slogan "yes we can".

European Union wants in on the Arctic

The European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, announced on Thursday that the EU wants to get involved in the Arctic.

With the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean retreating, nations are getting more and more interested in a body of water that until now was largely ignored due to its permanently frozen state. But as the globe warms and the ice retreats, new sea routes are opening up - including the fabled "Northwest Passage" north of Canada and Alaska that could shave weeks off the time it takes for a cargo ship to sail from Asia to Europe; so is access to the sea floor where a quarter of all the world's remaining reserves of oil and natural gas are thought to lie.

Canada has taken note, Prime Minister Harper has pledged to open a new deep water Arctic port in Canada's far north and increase the Canadian Navy's ability to operate in the Arctic since Canada expects the waters off their northern coast to become a major shipping route for at least part of the year. The Russians are planning to build up their Northern Fleet as well and earlier in the year launched an oil platform specially designed to work in the ice and bitter cold of the Arctic. Now the EU is saying that the Union should take steps to make sure they have access to the resources of the North.

The EU is also backing a claim by Denmark that could give them control over a vast stretch of the Arctic. Under international law every nation that has a coast on one of the world's oceans can claim a 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone where only they can fish, or drill for oil, or conduct any other economic activity. This zone can be extended if a nation can prove that an underwater feature is an extension of their territory. Enter the Lomonosov Ridge, an underwater mountain range that runs along the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, right under the North Pole. Denmark claims that the Ridge is an extension of Greenland (which Denmark controls) therefore they should have the rights to it. The Russians are making the same claim to the ridge, saying it starts in Russian territory, giving them rights to the Ridge.

It's typical of one of the kinds of claims that countries will likely soon be making over the Arctic Ocean, and the resources that lie beneath it.

Harper tightens grip on Canadian Arctic

The struggle for a very cold part of the world is quietly heating up.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper stepped up his country's efforts to control their slice of the far north during a visit to the town of Tuktoyaktuk (which if you have been watching this season of Ice Road Truckers you've become rather familiar with) in the Northwest Territories. This includes extending Canada's jurisdiction of the Arctic Ocean from a distance of 100 miles to 200 miles from their coastline and a new requirement that any ships entering the waters register with Canada's Coast Guard.

Global warming is the reason the countries around the Arctic Ocean are starting to take an interest in it. Large areas of the ocean are now becoming ice free for longer and longer portions of the year. For Canada, not only does this mean access to potentially huge reserves of natural gas and oil, but also that the fabled Northwest Passage is becoming a reality.

For centuries explorers looked for the Northwest Passage (a shortcut route from Europe to Asia by passing north of the American continent), but found only ice. But as that ice retreats, the Passage is becoming a commercially viable route, one that could shave weeks off the travels of the world's largest ships (ones too large to pass through the Panama Canal).

It's also a cause for dispute. Using the Passage would mean sailing between islands in Canada's far north. Right now many, including the European Union, consider these straits international waters. Canada thinks the straits are part of their territory and want to regulate, and likely earn revenue for, their use.

Separately, Harper announced the construction of a new icebreaker to serve as the flagship of the Canadian Navy's Arctic fleet.

"If you are in Canada's Arctic you will be playing by Canada's rules," Harper said in Tuktoyaktuk.