Russia: energy resources could spark future wars

Securing sources of energy could lead to wars in the near future and the oil and gas rich regions of the Arctic, Central Asia and Caspian Sea may be the battlefields according to Russia's National Security Strategy paper released this week.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed off on the report, which goes on to say that Russia must be prepared for the scenario where nations resort to the use of military force to secure needed oil and gas reserves. Russia borders all three of the energy-rich regions cited in the strategy.

A commentary on the report posted by the Voice of America keyed in on another segment of the strategy paper where Russia says that expansion of NATO to countries neighboring Russia is "unacceptable" - the United States so far has been a strong backer of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. The continuing plans for a US-backed anti-missile shield to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic was also cited as a "security threat" to Russia in the report.

But despite those hurdles, other observers said that the National Security Strategy showed positive signs of Russia wanting a peaceful, constructive relationship with its former Cold War adversaries, the report itself even states that Russia seeks an "equal and full-fledged strategic partnership with the United States on the basis of coinciding interests." Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine said, "the absence of tough rhetoric (in the report) reflects expectations that new agreements with the United States could be reached." He added that after years of tough talk from the Bush administration, it has taken Russian officials some time to believe that US-Russian relations could actually change in any meaningful way under President Obama. (See also this post about European-Russian perceptions and how they affect international relations.)

The Canwest News Service this week published the details of a meeting between Russian and Canadian officials that show progress between the two sides over the Arctic region. It’s estimated that a quarter of all the undiscovered oil and gas deposits left on Earth lie under the Arctic Ocean. With sea ice retreating as a result of global warming, the view of the Arctic is quickly changing from one of a frozen wasteland to a potential economic bonanza.

But that change in attitude has caused a rise in tensions among the nations bordering the Arctic - when it was a wasteland the countries surrounding it didn't worry too much about national boundaries, but now they are becoming more and more eager to assert their territorial claims. In their meeting, Russia supported Canada's claim for jurisdiction over the Northwest Passage - a potentially very lucrative commercial searoute that could shave weeks off the journey from Asia to Europe or the East Coast of North America, while also suggesting Russia, Canada and Denmark submit a joint proposal to the United Nations to determine national boundaries on the floor of the Arctic Ocean.

What's the big deal there? Oil and natural gas. Russia is attempting to claim that a vast tract of the seabed (extending right up to the North Pole) is in fact part of the Russian landmass and that rightfully all of the oil and gas beneath it therefore belongs to them. Denmark is pushing the same claim for their side (keep in mind that Greenland technically belongs to Denmark, hence their interest in the Arctic). Having the United Nations fix national boundaries would help to lessen some of the Arctic tensions.

The National Security Strategy paper will guide Russian security and government priorities through 2020.