The first oil from a new well drilled in northern Somalia
could flow to the surface just weeks from now.
As is typically the case when a new national resource is discovered in
an under-developed nation, the new oil patch is being described as the cure for
Somalia's ills – a domestic source of income that will promote stability and
development for the nation that will bring the Somalia diaspora home. The reality is much more problematic.
While Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has
signed deals for oil exploration, the oil field is actually located in the
northern part of the country in Puntland, a semi-autonomous region of Somalia
that has little to do with the TFG. To
further complicate matters, the TFG's mandate runs out in August (it is suppose
to be a “transitional” government after all), so what will happen to their
authority to enter into contracts such as this is a question. And the presence of foreigners looking for
wealth in their land has drawn the attention of Somalia's Islamist militants. A little-known Islamist militia,
which according to The Guardian is led by the ridiculously named Shiekh
Atom, has pledged loyalty to Somalia's top terror group, al-Shabaab and has
declared all oil contracts signed in Puntland to be null and void.
Some Somalis are also skeptical about the potential for oil
to save their country. It is a promise
that seldom works out as well as promised, especially in Africa. One only has to look at oil-producing
countries like Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria, where the quality of life for the
population in the oil-producing regions has actually gotten worse since the
discovery of oil, for evidence of this trend.
A number of Somalis cited in articles about Puntland's oil are skeptical
of the alleged windfall coming to their nation and worry that most of the
wealth will wind up in the hands of foreign companies.
There also seems to be a little confusion over what's
actually being drilled in Puntland in the first place. When a potential new oil or gas reserve is
discovered, it is practice to first drill a test well to analyze the quality and
commercial viability of the field. Yet
in a conference on Somalia last week, British Prime Minister David Cameron said
that not only was the first oil expected to flow from the Puntland well in the
coming weeks, but that pipelines had also already been laid to the coast so
that the oil could be exported – construction of a pipeline typically doesn't
occur until you know you have a viable field on your hands, otherwise it is a
lost investment.
The oil news out of Puntland also puts this story from December
2010 in greater context. The government
of Puntland had announced the signing of a deal with a shadowy private security
firm; the deal was allegedly to fight pirates along the Somali coast, yet security
efforts were focused inland. The
suggestion at the time was that firm's real purpose was to protect foreign
workers who were prospecting for natural gas reserves in Puntland's
interior.
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