Twitter Revolution: More Hype Than Help?

You can’t watch or read a news story about the ongoing protests in Iran without hearing some mention of the role Twitter is playing. But is the role of the “Twittersphere” being over-hyped by the mainstream media?

Probably yes, according to Wired.com’s “Dangerroom” blog. While admitting that it’s hard to track the actual number of tweets, Nicholas Thompson author of the Dangerroom post notes that even the most prominent Iranian tweeters have between 10,000 and 30,000 followers, a lot of people to be sure, but just a fraction of the million plus who follow actor Ashton Kutcher. And an analysis of users who say they’re in or near Tehran finds posts in German, Spanish and English, but none in Farsi, odd for posters based in Iran.

Babak Rahimi, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, contacted by Dangerroom said that while Twitter is being used as an organizing tool, it’s not as important in Iran as cellphones or other social networking sites. So it does seem like Twitter’s role in the revolution is being overstated, just like it was in the first ‘Twitter Revolution’ - the protests in Moldova back in April over the results of their election.

At the time, news outlets like the New York Times gushed about the role that Twitter was supposedly playing in organizing the mass rallies in Moldova’s capital, Chisinau. But as the protests’ main organizer Natalia Morar would later admit to the BBC, Twitter was only one of a stew of new technologies – that included cellphones, social networking sites and SMS text messages – she and her compatriots used to organize their protests. In the end, Moldova’s Twitter Revolution was more light than heat – the Moldovan government cracked down on the demonstrations after a few days and the ‘revolution’ fizzled out.

So why all the attention to Twitter as a tool of revolution? Because Twitter is the latest hi-tech infatuation of the mainstream media (if Twitter was a person, CNN would qualify as a stalker). And since everyone inside the NYC-DC media bubble is now on Twitter, members of the MSM naturally assume that the entire world is busy tweeting. Sure Twitter is an important tool, but it’s real value is more likely in getting the story out of Iran than it is in organizing events in-country. Do we really think that these protests wouldn’t be happening if Twitter didn’t exist?

It’s a sign of some sloppy reporting by the American MSM of the whole Iranian affair, as is portraying what’s going on as a revolution. So far it isn’t. Protesters in the streets of Tehran aren’t calling for the overthrow of the Ayatollahs, they just want their votes counted, in their opinion, this time fairly (of course the counter-protesters in favor of President Ahmadinejad think the vote count should stand as is). Mir Hossein Mousavi is called a reformer and is certainly more moderate than Ahmadinejad, but he’s no Iranian Barack Obama, and even if he manages to overturn the election results as they stand now and takes the presidency, it won’t be a revolutionary change in Iran.

Or to paraphrase Mark Twain – reports of the Twitter Revolution have been greatly exaggerated.