Saturday, June 13, 2009

Ahmadinejad 'Wins' Election

By now you've probably heard that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won yesterday's election, and that the opposition is crying foul over the results.

Both CNN and the BBC are reporting large-scale demonstrations in the streets of Tehran, one of the power-bases of Ahmadinejad's challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi. For his part, Mousavi is saying that really he won the election and that the results have been falsified. The official tally gives Ahmadinejad 63% of the vote to only 34% for Mousavi, a wild turn of events, considering polling just before the election had the two in a virtual dead heat and that Mousavi's supporters were energized following a wild televised debate two weeks ago.

But on Thursday, EurasiaNet published a detail story on just how Ahmadinejad's supporters could steal the election. Key to the strategy are the thousands of Ahmadinejad loyalists filling the ranks of the Interior Ministry and Guardian Council - the two bodies in charge of running the election. EurasiaNet notes that in 1999, the Guardian Council tossed out 700,000 votes to ensure a victory for a hard-line parliamentary candidate over his reformist challenger, and that the Council was also accused of vote-rigging during Ahmadinejad's first presidential victory in 2005.

Mousavi hoped to counter voter fraud with thousands of volunteer poll-watchers, but Iran's Internet and cell phone services were suffering mysterious slow-downs on Election Day, among the worst hit sites? Those supporting Mousavi.

Unfortunately for Mousavi, it's unlikely that there will be any serious investigation of his vote-fraud claims, so the results will probably stand. The big questions now are whether or not the street protests will continue and whether Iran's Guardian Council, the collection of religious leaders who really run the country, will make any changes to Iran's public policy to appease the newly energized Iranian moderates.
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