Expect to see pieces like the one above between now and Wednesday when Dmitry Medvedev will be sworn in as President of Russia. Medvedev takes over for Vladimir Putin, whose eight-year run as president saw Russia shake off its economic woes of the 1990s and retake its place as a power on the world stage.
Where Russia goes from here though is anybody's guess. Medvedev is a young man (only 42) who has never held an elected office before. His first act after winning the presidency was to offer the position of prime minister to Putin. This has led many to wonder what's really going on in the Kremlin.
One popular thought is that Medvedev is Putin's puppet who's only keeping the seat warm until Putin can run again in four years or, more conspiratorially, is only a placeholder who will step down after a few months in office, allowing Putin to skirt the term limits law and become president again. Another theory is that Putin took the PM job as a way to hang onto power, while yet another holds that he agreed to take the PM job as a way to ease himself out of the Kremlin, having grown tired of fighting to hang onto power.
Most observers agree that there are constant power struggles going on within the Kremlin between different factions. As I talked about in an earlier post, I think this might explain the Medvedev/Putin partnership. Many of the people currently within government, like Putin himself, have a background in the Russian security services (the FSB, the post-Soviet version of the KGB). They wanted another of their own to follow Putin. Medvedev isn't in that club - he is a lawyer of St. Petersburg. Without support from this faction within the Kremlin, Medvedev would likely be president in name only. So Putin has agreed to remain in government as prime minister using his own personal popularity to give Medvedev a base of power.
It’s the solution that makes the most sense. If Putin had just wanted to stay in power, that would have been simple enough. Lawmakers in the Duma proposed removing the term limits provision and with his party, United Russia, holding the majority of seats, Putin would have the votes to make it happen. With a popularity rating in the 70-80% range, Putin would have won a third term easily.
Of course just because it’s a solution that makes sense, it doesn't mean that it's correct. And it doesn't address the bigger question of how well the Medvedev-Putin partnership will work in practice. Medvedev broadly wants to continue Putin's political platform, though there are some important differences.
Medvedev has called for better relations with the West, less of the confrontation that has marked Putin's foreign policy, especially in the past few years. He also wants to crackdown on corruption and to make sure that all parts of the nation share in the profits from oil and gas sales. They are necessary steps if Russia is to continue its economic growth and to develop a middle class, which was one of Putin's main goals. But they are also moves that will put Medvedev at odds with the powerful oligarch class, as well as some members of his own government.
It’s why some analysts believe that despite the wild oil and gas revenues flowing into the country, Russia could be facing a period of instability.
For Russia, the future starts Wednesday.
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