Big guns in Red Square

For the first time since the days of the Soviet Union tanks, missiles and troop transports were a part of Russia's Victory Day parade through Red Square. Victory Day marked the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany and remains one of the biggest public holidays on the Russian calendar.

I was expecting the western press to be filled with more stories about Russia's rising militarism, the start of a new Cold War, etc., etc., though to my surprise the parade passed with little note - probably because US media outlets were more fixated Friday on the cyclone in Myanmar and the presidential primary season that will not end.

The Victory Day parade was the first public outing for new President Dmitri Medvedev. The analyst/pundit class still can't seem to agree on what to make of Medvedev - and his relation with the former President and now current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, which brings back another pastime from the Soviet era - Kremlinology.

This was the term for the obsessive analysis of pictures and films taken of the members of the Soviet hierarchy. Being a secretive bunch with total control over the media, finding out what was really going on with the leadership of the Soviet Union was often an impossible task for outsiders. So analysts would pour over pictures to see who was standing next to whom, which members of the Secretariat looked well, or who looked sick and so on as a way of guessing who might be on their way up and who on their way down.

Now the process is being repeated with Medvedev and Putin. It was noted that Medvedev’s speech after his swearing in lasted about 20 minutes, while Putin’s speech after accepting the PM spot was closer to 45. Putin was described as looking grim, while Medvedev said a few words during the Victory Day parade, and so on.

Medvedev is thought by many to be a figurehead for Putin. But Medvedev, so far, has promised to chart a different course than his old boss. He is talking about a foreign policy that is less confrontational with the West than Putin’s has been, and he has made tackling corruption and enforcing the rule of law two of his top priorities.

Hopefully Medvedev will follow through on these promises. Corruption plagues all levels of life in Russia, while the perception is widespread that the laws are flexible depending on who you are or who you know. Both stand in the way of Russia developing a middle class, something that would help to bring long-term stability to the country.

One indication on whether Medvedev is president or puppet will be how he interacts with other world leaders over the next few months. As president foreign affairs are his responsibility alone. If Putin manages to loom large in Russia’s international affairs (like the upcoming G8 summit), then Medvedev’s presidency may be as hollow as many fear.