Meanwhile in Kyrgyzstan…

As of Friday things in the Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan were still chaotic after street protests earlier in the week drove President Kurmanbek Bakiyev from power. Well, at least they appear to have driven Bakiyev from power… Opposition leader Roza Otunbayeva claims to have taken control of the government in Bishkek, though so far the opposition’s main efforts have been to bring the widespread looting in the capital under control, people have reportedly even dug up and carted off the decorative shrubs from the grounds of the Presidential Palace. Meanwhile President Bakiyev is in hiding at an undisclosed location in the south of Kyrgyzstan, refusing to resign; while the country’s military still has yet to fully pick a side.

Now fingers are being pointed at Russia as being the force behind the Kyrgyz revolution. For the past several years Russia has been competing with the United States and China for influence over the five former Soviet republics of Central Asia, collectively called “the Stans”. During the past few weeks, the Russian media has been filled with negative stories about the government of President Bakiyev. But Bakiyev’s regime has long been condemned by international groups for corruption and human rights abuses, the Russian media’s sudden interest though, according to some Russia watchers, is an indication of an official change of heart towards Kyrgyzstan in the Kremlin. And while dissent among people in Kyrgyzstan has been growing for months, according to EurasiaNet, a sudden decision by Russia to slap export duties on gasoline and diesel fuel imported by Kyrgyzstan may have been the last straw. The duties caused a dramatic spike in gas prices in Kyrgyzstan, which sparked the massive street protests in Bishkek this week, which in turn chased Bakiyev from the capital.

This could all be payback for Bakiyev’s decision to allow the United States to continue to lease the Manas Air Base outside of Bishkek. Manas has become a vital link in US military operations in Afghanistan – roughly 15,000 troops pass through the base each month on their way to Afghanistan, while the base is also the hub for all the air patrols over northern Afghanistan. In February 2009, the Kyrgyz decided to terminate the US lease on the base, something that threw the Afghan mission into turmoil. American presence in their “backyard” had long irked the Russians, in early 2009 they put together a $2 billion aid package for impoverished Kyrgyzstan, the alleged catch was that in return for the cash Kyrgyzstan would kick the US out of Manas. But after a short delay, and a massive increase in rent payments, Bakiyev decided to sign a new lease agreement with the United States, while also keeping Russia’s money. This moved him onto Russia’s bad guy list and the rest is apparently history.

The fate of the current US agreement on leasing Manas, like everything else in Kyrgyzstan today, is currently up in the air.