Thursday, July 16, 2009

Murder Means New Human Rights Problem For Russia

Natalia Estemirova, a prominent human rights activist in Chechnya turned up in the neighboring Russian republic of Ingushetia yesterday, dead from two gunshot wounds and all signs are pointing to Chechnya's President Ramzan Kadyrov as being the man behind the murder. Estemirova was snatched off the streets of the Chechen capital Grozny yesterday, yelling out that she was being kidnapped before being shoved into a waiting car.

Pres. Kadyrov has brought stability to Chechnya after more than a decade of brutal fighting between Chechen separatists and Russian forces that led to a string of high-profile terrorist attacks in Russia. But that stability has come at a price - human rights groups say that Kadyrov has achieved peace by allowing his personal militia to carry out their own terror campaign against Chechen rebels (and Kadyrov's political opponents and critics as well). Estemirova's group "Memorial" said on their website that Kadyrov had threatened Estemirova and considered her to be a "personal enemy".

According to a Kremlin spokesman, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is "outraged" by Estemirova's murder and has ordered a full investigation. Russia is already taking flak from the international community about their human rights record, especially over the murder of several other high-profile journalists and human rights activists, so Medvedev has to say he'll take Estemirova's murder seriously. But what he can actually do to bring the perpetrators to justice, especially if that perp is Kadyrov, is a good question.

Moscow has a wink-and-a-nod agreement with Kadyrov: he keeps Chechnya (reasonably) quiet and they'll stay out of his business. But even if they want to, Moscow's in no position to try and get rid of Kadyrov, and they both know it. Russia has no desire for a third Chechen war (the first two quickly became brutal guerilla conflicts), while Kadyrov has managed to pretty effectively get rid of his political opposition. The few remaining rebels in Chechnya don't want to be part of Russia, so Moscow won't back them against Kadyrov, since keeping Chechnya part of the Russian Federation was the reason for the two wars in the first place.

Back in April I wondered if Russia hadn't created a monster in Chechnya. Now it's looking more and more like they have, and they'll likely be stuck with him for a long, long time.
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