Thursday, April 9, 2009

Georgians take to the streets to push Saakashvili out

In 2003 tens of thousands of Georgians took to the streets in the capital, Tbilisi, demanding a change in leadership, mass protests that eventually brought President Mikhail Saakashvili to power. Today, tens of thousands of Georgians have returned to the street to tell him it's time to go.

That was the message some 60,000 Georgians were sending today in Tbilisi who, in an echo of Georgia's much-heralded "Rose Revolution" of 2003, are promising to stay on the streets outside the Georgian Parliament until Saakashvili resigns. According to the Associated Press, many Georgians are still angry with Saakashvili over last August's conflict with Russia over the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. While Western governments were quick to blame Russia for the war last year, more and more evidence has emerged showing that Saakashvili himself sparked the conflict - an attempt, perhaps to make good on a 2008 campaign promise to reintegrate the two breakaway regions into Georgia before the end of his term.

But the war went badly and both regions have since made claims of independence, claims backed up by Russian peacekeeping troops on their territories. Georgians, as the AP points out, are angry at Saakashvili for in effect losing about a quarter of their country, though in reality the anger with Saakashvili goes back further than last summer's war. Even as early as 2007 there were large-scale protest in Tbilisi over Saakashvili's failure to make good on promises to reduce unemployment and spread the country's economic growth throughout all sectors of the population. There were also charges that he was turning into exactly the same type of autocrat that the Rose Revolution deposed in 2003. Saakashvili responded to the peaceful protests by sending in the riot troops to break them up - an action ignored by his supporters in the West who in the wake of the August conflict tried to paint him as the George Washington of the Caucasus, the father of Georgian Democracy.

Reality, though, seems to be catching up to Saakashvili. The political opposition, which was previously fractured, is using Georgia's defeat in the conflict as a rallying point to oppose Saakashvili. Mikhail himself is being portrayed as an impulsive, incompetent leader who blundered his way into a war that he could not possibly win. While there is still much anger with Russia over the conflict, many in Georgia see the importance of friendly relations with Russia (not to mention the deep cultural ties between the two nations) and are not receptive to Saakashvili's continued angry talk towards Moscow. His stock even seems to be falling among his supporters in the West who have made some overtures towards former parliament speaker (and former Saakashvili ally) Nino Burdzhanadze, who is now looked on as a possible successor to Mikhail.

Whether Saakashvili remains in power at this point likely depends on the resolve of the opposition and the protesters in the streets.
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