That's what happened today in Israel when Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the right-of-centre Likud party, the second-place finishers in Israel's elections ten days ago, was invited to form Israel's next government, meaning Bibi Netanyahu is poised to once again become Israel's Prime Minister.
How is that possible? Thank Israel's semi-dysfunctional version of democracy. When you vote in Israel you vote for the party not for an individual candidate, when all the votes are counted, seats in the Knesset (the parliament) are portioned out according to the percentage of votes each party received. That part isn't so bad, the problem is that Israel has set the threshold for getting representation in the Knesset at only 2% of the total number of votes cast (by comparison, most countries with similar systems set the threshold at 5%, or even 7%). This has meant that unlike most national parliaments where there are two or three main parties and two or three (if that many) smaller ones, the Knesset usually has a dozen or more (there will be 12 parties represented in the new Knesset). In practice this has kept the main parties in Israel from coming anywhere near a majority and forcing them to cobble together unstable coalitions of small parties with narrow interests - for example Kadima, the party which won the most votes only has 28 out of 120 seats in the Knesset, Likud has 27. The effect is that the smaller parties have an outsized influence over the government since if they pull out of the coalition the government falls.
All this comes back to the most recent election. Netanyahu was tapped to try to form a government since he has the support of several far right/nationalist parties, meaning he has a better chance of putting together a coalition than does Kadima party leader Tzipi Livni. Netanyahu has talked about putting together a broad-based coalition that would include Kadima; Livni is open to the idea only if the coalition doesn't include some of the small, far right parties currently supporting Netanyahu.
So the chances are that Kadima won't join the government and Netanyahu will form a weak coalition with several far right parties, a move that will be a severe blow to the idea of peace with the Palestinians. In a bad sign for the process, and frankly Israel's long-term prospects in general, one person sure to be a member of the new government will be Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beiteinu party. Lieberman is a controversial figure, opposed to the two-state solution and often branded as being anti-Arab. His latest policy suggestion is that all Israeli Arabs (and they make up close to 20% of the population of Israel) be forced to take a 'loyalty oath' to Israel or lose their citizenship.
That would be a giant step towards Israel becoming an apartheid state by, in theory, creating two classes of people within its borders - citizens and non-citizens. It's also not the type of solution that would improve relations between Israel and the Arab world - which are currently at a low ebb - or one that would help Israel and Palestine come to a lasting peace agreement.
Netanyahu's first go as Prime Minister was marked by a hawkish approach towards the Palestinians. He says though that he is now older and wiser. How he deals with Lieberman will be an early test of that theory.
No comments:
Post a Comment