Sunday, September 14, 2008

Saakashvili planned the South Ossetia invasion

Georgia's attack on South Ossetia was at least three years in the planning according to their former Defense Minister Irakly Okruashvili, and was not the response to an unprovoked Russian invasion.

But Okruashvili, who turned into a critic of President Mikheil Saakashvili and now lives in exile, said that the Georgian president bungled the military operation, leading to Georgia's resounding defeat at the hands of Russia.

The original plan was to attack both the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali and the main highway leading into South Ossetia from Russia, but on the night of August 7 Saakashvili only launched the strike against Tskhinvali. According to Okruashvili, Saakashvili thought capturing the highway was unnecessary because he expected the United States to step in and block any Russian response. By the time Saakashvili realized that help from the US wasn't coming, it was too late to block the Russian reinforcements flooding into South Ossetia – dooming the Georgian offensive.

Of course why Saakashvili would think help was coming is a mystery since according to Okruashvili the United States told him not to expect the US to fight on Georgia's side. "When we met President Bush in May 2005, we were told directly: don't involve yourself in a military confrontation. We won't be able to help you militarily," Okruashvili told Reuters.

Okruashvili's report meshes with other recent reports that show Saakashvili as a hothead who was repeatedly told by foreign governments, including by representatives from the United States and Germany, not to provoke Russia. He went on to say that Saakashvili has turned into an authoritarian leader, "the institutions he created all revolved around him. Lack of criticism from the U.S. allowed him to go too far," Okruashvili added.

Okruashvili is an interesting character. On one hand he certainly has an axe to grind against Saakashvili - he had a falling out with the president and was charged with corruption in 2007, causing him to flee into exile. A Georgian court tried him in absentia and sentenced him to 11 years in prison. But at the same time Okruashvili is a native of South Ossetia, who during his time as defense minister did draw up plans to retake the region by force. He called the peace deal negotiated by the European Union a disgrace because of how it strengthened Russia's claim to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Meanwhile RIA Novosti is reporting that Russian military intelligence estimates that Georgia lost up to 3,000 military and police personnel in the conflict. The Russians blame Georgia's heavy losses on poor training and low morale. Russia's official losses during the conflict are 66 killed and about 340 wounded.
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