Russia's plan to avert second cold war

Here's an interesting piece on US-Russian relations by way of the Christian Science Monitor. Relations between the US and Russia have been getting steadily worse lately (something mentioned in a number of posts here), due in large part to the United States’ insistence of installing a missile defense system in Eastern Europe and its drive to pull Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.

Russia, though, has begun floating a the idea of "EATO" the Euro-Atlantic Treaty Organization as a successor to NATO and a big tent for the US, Russia and countries all across Europe to come together on mutual security issues. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev first mentioned the idea a couple of months ago when he called for a security organization that would stretch from "Vladivostok to Vancouver".

Details on what EATO would look like so far have been sparse, but I think the concept deserves some serious consideration. It's important to remember that NATO was created to defend Western Europe from an invasion by the Soviet Union. Without the Soviet Union, the whole idea of NATO makes a lot less sense. In an effort to find a rasion d'etre (as the French would say) for NATO, fighting terrorism has become its new role - NATO's biggest operation today is fighting Taleban/al-Qaeda insurgents in Afghanistan.

Russia has its own problems with terrorism along its southern border in the Caucasus region and has suffered several large-scale terror attacks in the past few years (including the massacre at a school in the southern town of Beslan and a hostage siege at a Moscow theater). At the same time Moscow enjoys much better relations with Iran (suspected of being a major funder of terrorist organizations) than do NATO powers like the US and UK, so they are likely to have more influence with Iran than any of the Western powers. For the fight against global terrorism, EATO makes a lot of sense.

And if security for former Soviet lands like Ukraine and Georgia is the reason to hurry them into NATO, uniting them, Europe, the US and Russia in EATO seems like an even better idea. Tensions between Russia and Georgia and/or Ukraine won't go away if they become members of NATO (if anything it will likely make things more tense), but get everyone together in the same organization? That could actually improve the situation - it would at least get rid of the idea that Ukraine and Georgia can only have friendly relations with either the West or Russia.

Finally, EATO could help to prevent the next Cold War. Its clear that China has designs on being the world's next superpower. Russia and China have historically had uneasy relations, but tensions with the US/NATO are helping to drive Russia and China together. China desperately needs natural resources to fuel its growth, something Russia has in abundance. Having Russia in a partnership with the Western powers in an organization like EATO though could stall the growing Russia-China alliance and weaken China's drive towards superpower status.

So far EATO is little more than a concept, but it is an interesting one, and one that deserves more discussion. It’s a West-Russian relationship build to respect rather than the threat of conflict, and that's a refreshing change.